Muslim voters hold the key as Rajasthan goes to polls

The electoral battleground is set in Rajasthan; more than four crore voters are expected to exercise their franchise for 199 assembly seats on Sunday. 

The fate of 2,087 candidates, including chief minister Ashok Gehlot and state BJP chief Vasundhara Raje will be sealed in a tight battle, where the BJP is viewed as having a discernible edge over the ruling Congress due to proper candidate selection, united leadership and campaign strategy. Polling in Churu Assembly constituency, from where nine candidates are contesting, has been postponed to December 13, following the death of BSP candidate Jagdish Meghwal.

The State has 200 Assembly seats. In 2008, the Congress won 96 seats or 36.82 per cent of the vote, compared to the BJP’s 78 seats or 34.27 per cent of the vote. In the arid state, a mere 2.5 per cent swing means a difference of 20-25 seats.

According to state election commission records, among the 2,087 candidates, only 166 are women while one is a eunuch. The Congress and the BJP have fielded 200 candidates each, BSP has 195, the CPI(M) has 38, CPI has 23 and the NCP has 16. Other parties are fielding 666 candidates while 758 Independents are going it alone across the state, including in Churu Assembly constituency. Among the major parties, the Congress has fielded 31 new faces, 19 ministers and 29 sitting MLAs.

The Congress is betting on rural areas, where chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s social welfare schemes, worth Rs 5,000 crore, have been extremely popular. The BJP, however, is using inflation, price rise, mis-governance at the Centre as planks to woo voters. It is also banking on the charisma of its prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi to lure urban and young voters. For Muslims, the face of Vasundhara Raje is perceived to be a secular and moderate face in the BJP.

Over the past two years, Gehlot has showered social schemes, including free medicines, across the board old-age pension, free medicine for cattle, cycles for girl child, laptops to Class 8 toppers in all schools, construction of hostels for girls from minority communities and subsidised rations. But his election managers concede that a strong disconnect between the central Congress leadership and the ground realities is costing the party heavily, even though they have been effectively countering the Modi effect.  “A message has gone around on the ground that even if the Congress wins, Gehlot will not return as the chief minister,” one of his election managers told dna. “His (chief minister’s) hands are tied and baring the first list of 70 candidates, he was ignored and overruled in most other choices for candidate selection,” said one of Gehlot’s aides. 

In Bhilware, in the state’s Mewar region in the northern tip, Muslims – core Congress voters – are getting increasingly angry with CP Joshi, who, it is believed will be made the next chief minister if the Congress wins. Joshi represents this seat in the Lok Sabha.

Disenchanted with the Congress and the fear of Modi, Muslims who constitute between 9-11 per cent are voting differently in different regions. In Sawai Madhopur, they may go with the BJP to ensure defeat for Dr Kirodhi Lal Meena, who is leading a third force, eating into the votes of both the major parties. Muslims in this region are enraged with him for his role in the murder of a Muslim police inspector Phool Mohammad. 

In Shekhawati and Marwar regions, Muslims are favouring the BJP, largely because of its selection of Muslim faces and somewhat moderate Hindu candidates. But in Jaipur district, Muslims are going to vote for the Congress en block for want of an alternative.

In Hadoti region, which includes Rajasthan’s educational hub Kota, Muslims are moving out of the Congress fold slowly but progressively. Here, a large section of Muslims is seen as moving to Dr Kirodhi Lal Meena’s Rashtriya Jan Party even as some others are favouring the newly emerging Social Democratic Party of India.  The Social Democratic Party of India’s candidate in Kota (North), Mohammad Shafi, has brought in the open the disillusionment of the Muslim community with the Congress and their fear to side with the BJP.

A large number of Muslims in Jhalawar district have moved to the BJP due to the efforts and image of Vasundhara Raje. Incidentally, Amin Pathan, BJP’s minority morcha chief, hails from Kota, and was a strong contender for a party ticket from Kota (North) constituency. The BJP minority morcha had sought 10 tickets for Muslims. The BJP gave tickets to just four, of who are in close contests in their respective constituencies.

In Ramganj Mandi, Muslim voters are divided almost equally between the Congress and the BJP. This constituency, which also has two wards of Kota city, has around 24,000 Muslim voters. This division and support among the Muslims has made this constituency a safe one for the BJP’s Chandra Kanta Meghwal, who is also the sitting MLA. Similarly, in Chhabda constituency, a large number of Muslims are swaying to the BJP and the Rashtriya Jan Party in almost equal numbers.

After a whirlwind tour of Rajasthan that involved interaction with a large section of the state’s population, it appears that Muslim voters, who can tilt scales in as many as 50 seats, are beginning to complaint about the Congress; the party uses us as vote banks and parachutes candidates, who have no connection with the community, they state. “The Congress anoints Muslims in order to show that it is secular and has concern for the community welfare. But most of these Congress Muslims are either silent or absent on Muslim issues. They are even discouraged, and even punished, for speaking on community issues,” a community leader told dna.

On the other hand, a view gathering in the community is that the Muslims with the BJP are vocal about the community’s issues. In Nagore and Deedwara, where BJP has fielded Muslim candidates, insiders tell dna that the candidates are free to raise Muslim issues in the party fora and are even able to exert pressure stating they represent the Muslim community in the party and that if the party really needs support from Muslims, it will have to hear and address their issues.

This begs a larger question on whether Muslims can join the BJP in large numbers despite the party’s Hindutva ideology and Modi’s presence? In public, the BJP’s Muslim workers defend and offer their own interpretation. In private, many agreed that that the Muslim community’s move toward the BJP cannot be increased substantially without the party coming clean on the ideological issue. It is for this reason only, they say, that Muslims overwhelmingly support the Congress.