The southwest monsoon usually arrives in Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days and last year it arrived on May 30, as was stated by IMD in its forecast
This year the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala three days earlier. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Friday that monsoon is expected set in over Kerala on May 29 as conditions are likely to become favourable for advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal around May 23. The southwest monsoon usually arrives in Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days and last year it arrived on May 30, as was stated by IMD in its forecast.
The country's national forecaster uses an indigenous statistical model that has a model error of +/-4 for forecasting the monsoon's onset. This model uses six weather markers comprising of data on minimum temperatures over North-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over south China sea and outgoing long wave radiation over south-west Pacific region. Long-wave radiation is the heat that is radiated to the atmosphere.
In its first long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD had said that the country will see normal rainfall at 97 per cent of the long-period average, which is 890mm based on the historical data of 1951-2000.
Usually, the monsoon covers the southern peninsula and eastern coastal states by June 7-8 and arrives in Mumbai on June 10, progressing to cover the entire country first week of July. The onset of the monsoon, though, does not have a direct impact on its progress across the country. "There is no large impact or correlation between the arrival date of monsoon and its progress in the later weeks or its distribution in the country in the longer season. The onset only signals the beginning of the monsoon season in the sub-continent," said a senior scientist of IMD.
The monsoon usually progress in pulses and goes through a period of rapid progress and lulls depending upon the weather systems.
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