Lok Sabha Election 2019: Capt Cool tries ‘SAD moments’ to steal show

In the summer of 2014, contrary to the country's obsession with Modi frenzy, Punjab threw up a surprise in the 15th Lok Sabha elections. Besides resurrecting a virtual rookie in the state -- the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) -- with an impressive win, it also remained lukewarm towards the hysteria, giving only two seats out of total 13, to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and reducing its vote share as compared to 2009. BJP's alliance partner and then ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) bagged as much as debutant AAP -- four seats -- while Congress got three in its kitty.

Three years later, Congress made a spectacular comeback in the state assembly elections, with a two-thirds majority, usurping power from a decade-long SAD-BJP regime.

It is the summer of 2019 now and India is going to polls for the 16th time. The nationalist narrative of India's response after the Pulwama attack on February 14, can somewhat be heard in this border state too. Punjab has a long and proud history of sending its men to the armed forces, and the nation's subsequent retaliation towards Pakistan has drowned high-pitch debates around religion and sacrilege -- hyper local but significant issues. The BJP has remained a poorer sibling of dominant partner SAD even though it is taking its nationalism agenda to the state which famously shares its border with Pakistan, trying to fan patriotism into votebank.

SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal is also trying to hop onto this bandwagon, asking people to vote for a "strong and brave Prime Minister".

"Punjab has been the only state where BJP has not been able to gain anything by entering into an alliance with a local party. The Akalis have never allowed them to flourish because it carries a stigma of being a Baniya-Brahmin party -- a party of urban Punjab, catering to upper caste Hindus. Punjab, meanwhile, has 34 per cent population belonging to the Scheduled Caste," says Prof Ashutosh Kumar from the department of political science, Panjab University. The BJP also suffers from a lack of credible Sikh leadership -- driving away the Punjabi Suba. It has also failed to bring Hindutva brand of politics to the state because RSS does not have any stranglehold on Punjab," he says further.

Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh, aware of the BJP's tactics, too has not shied away from contributing his bit to the popular discourse. Whether it is applauding the air strike, drawing attention for demanding vengeance from Pakistan or offering to receive Wing Commander Abhinandan at Attari Border, the former army officer has shrewdly played upon the patriotic sentiments of Punjabis.

The third player, AAP, meanwhile, is shaken in the state, battling internal bickering and loss of face as it continues to lose credible faces. Even though it finished second in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections, its performance was lacklustre with reduced vote share.

Dissent is ailing political outfits in Punjab, especially SAD and AAP. Splinter groups born out of rebellion are adding more drama to the mayhem and creating new equations which, according to political experts, will have a decisive bearing on the final outcome.

The grand old party of Punjab has rejected the leadership of junior Badal who took reigns from his father Parkash Singh Badal. His coronation was vehemently and openly opposed by old guards in the party, Ranjit Singh Brahampura being a prominent one. The Khadoor Sahib MP has formed a party of dissidents who call themselves Taksalis (original Akalis), called the SAD (Taksali). Adding to the woes of SAD, the Akal Takht is visibly miffed with the party's alleged mishandling of sacrilege of the Guru Grant Sahib in 2015. That the Justice Ranjit Singh panel appointed by resurgent Congress in 2018 to look into the matter has blamed the Badals for the deplorable incident, has not helped the family either. "Sukhbir may be partaking from BJP's nationalism rabble-rousing but religion is a very important part of Punjab politics. The Badals have been no exception in using the religion card more when they have in the opposition. They cannot disassociate themselves from it now. They are on a sticky wicket," feels Prof Emeritus BS Brar, PU.

To salvage its sliding popularity graph, the SAD is also contemplating fielding Sukhbir from Ferozepur or Bathinda- considered strongholds of the party, "to send a strong message". "The 2017 defeat was humiliating for the party which is not even the main opposition party in the Assembly. SAD cannot afford to lose in 2019 to remain relevant in the state politics and to have greater bargaining power with the BJP," said a senior SAD leader not wishing to be named. "The party has been on a weak footing on various issues like debt waiver by incumbent Congress and the desecration controversy. Bringing heavyweights is the only possible solution right now," he adds.

The AAP is riddled with its own internal crisis, facing revolt and an embarrassing exodus of seven MLAs of the 20 last year. The party suspended Sukhpal Singh Khaira and also removed him from the post of Leader of Opposition after he publicly castigated chieftain Arvind Kejriwal for apologising to SAD leader Bikram Singh Majithia in a drug-related defamation case. The rebel MLA then resigned from the AAP and formed a new party with the seven dissidents.

The state is now staring at a multi-cornered contest, with all the rebellion and infighting likely to play to Congress' advantage. The revolt in AAP and SAD has dented their votebank and the prospects to recover from the abysmal performances in the 2017 Assembly polls besides two by-elections, municipal and panchayat elections.