Lok Sabha 2019: Mamata Banerjee eyes Delhi, BJP Bengal as Red tide ebbs

Bringing curtains down on 33 years of Left Front government in 2011, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress continued with its momentum in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, beating the Modi wave which had taken the country by storm. The scenario, however, has changed a lot ever since. Modi wave might not be that palpable now, but the BJP has strengthened its organisation in Bengal – roping in leaders and from other parties and widening its support base – and Mamata's TMC may find it difficult to deliver a clean sweep this time. With the rapidly waning support of the Left and the Congress, other than for a few seats, fight this time will be largely two way – between the TMC and the BJP.

MAMATA'S PICKS

TMC's list of candidates shows a mix of seasoned politicians and star power. After the impressive performance by Bengali film stars in last Lok Sabha polls, Mamata has once again repeated most of them even while bringing in some new faces.

Adhir turf: Winning Behrampore, the turf of Congress MP Adhir Chowdhury, could be a tall order for TMC. Keeping that in mind, the party had poached two sidekicks of Chowdhury – Apurba Sarkar and Abu Taher Khan – to be pitched from Behrampore and Murshidabad LS seats respectively. Sarkar aka David claims he would end the myth that Chowdhury cannot be defeated. Chowdhury, on the other hand, said he had challenged Mamata Banerjee to contest from Behrampore and win.

Surprises: Mamata sprung surprises in Krishnanagar and Ranaghat, replacing sitting MPs with new faces. Karimpur MLA Mahua Moitra has replaced with actor and MP Tapas Paul in Krishnanagar, while in Ranaghat, sitting MP Tapas Mondal has been replaced by widow of murdered MLA Rupali Halder.

Subrata factor: Pitching Subrata Mukherjee, the seniormost minister in her cabinet, from Bankura can be a ploy by Mamata. As Public Health Engineering minister, Mukherjee had spent Rs 1,100 crore on water projects in Bankura and people could prefer him to actor-turned-politician Moon Moon Sen who is fighting anti-incumbency.

Manas test: It will be an acid test for Congress MLA-turned-TMC Rajya Sabha MP Manas Bhunia who is in fray from Midnapore. Last time, he had unsuccessfully contested from Ghatal as a Congress candidate against TMC's Deepak Adhikary, popularly known as Dev. He said Mamata had done a lot for the district and it would be one reason why the people of Midnapore would accept him as a TMC candidate.

MINORITY REPORT

With minorities constituting nearly 30 per cent of the state electorate, its importance can hardly be over-emphasised. Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty says minority votes were still in favour of TMC. "Chances are that 85 per cent of the minority voters will favour Mamata. There are 26 constituencies where the TMC will get a headstart with 25-26 per cent minority votes. On the other hand, BJP, which is trying to implement the UP or Assam model by engineering defection from TMC or fragmenting CPM and Congress votes, has only 5-6% of minority support and sadly other than Mukul Roy, no one seems to realise the importance of it in Bengal to emerge as a game-changer. They might be able to give a tough fight in 10 seats and might win in some as well, but to emerge victoriously, you have to gain minority support," he said.

DEVELOPMENT

Development agenda had worked for the TMC in 2016. This time too, while TMC leaders are harping on the issue of development brought about by their government, experts believe that it won't cut ice with voters. "For example, I might have got a house under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana; but instead of getting the full Rs 1.2 lakh, I have got only Rs 80,000 as the rest had to be paid to the local TMC leader. Same is the case with road works etc where contractors will have to grease palms of TMC netas. These have not gone well with voters," Chakraborty said.

FACTION FEUD

This is one big challenge for the ruling TMC. Some of the big names had switched camps of late. Factionalism had prevailed in the party for long but for the first time, it is posing a challenge at the top level. The defection of Soumitra Khan, Anupam Hazra and Arjun Singh to BJP has also let out a lot of bad blood with party cadre indulging in group clashes. Allotting seats to new-comers has also caused heartburn among party's committed workers. Singh had been vocal about it, and after Arpita Ghosh was pitched from Balurghat in South Dinajpur, party district president Biplab Mitra too expressed his discontent as well. Some of the party veterans complain that there are 11 such turncoats in the present list.

BJP SILVER LINING

One of the aces of BJP this time would be the TMC biggies switching over to their sides. On March 15, BJP state president had admitted that they did not have enough experienced leaders in Bengal to be pitched in LS polls and that they are eyeing senior leaders who can switch over. Infighting within TMC and erosion among other parties might come handy for the BJP. Of the two seats they are holding, Darjeeling's fate would depend upon what kind of support absconding GJM leader Bimal Gurung can garner from behind the scenes. Actor-turned-politician Babul Supriyo, whose celebrity image won him Asansol, has lost a lot of charisma, but TMC pitching Moon Moon Sen from there has delighted BJP.

CPM-CONG COMBO

Other than 4-5 seats in Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur districts, there is no much hope for the two unless the much-talked-about seat-sharing between the two materialises. At present, the duo holds six seats. The Left votes are so fragmented that, while the TMC secured 34 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections with 39.05% votes, the Left parties could bag only two even after securing 29.71% votes.