While ruling party has already announced its list of candidates for the state, the Opposition party is playing the wait-and-watch game
Come May 19 and Himachal Pradesh voters will decide if they are satisfied with the new leadership under Jai Ram Thakur or if they prefer their 85-year-old "yuva" leader Shanta Kumar back in the saddle.
Ironically, though Kumar has been denied a ticket from his stronghold Kangra, he insists that he had no plans to contest polls this election cycle. To that end, he also had a closed door meeting with the CM at his Delhi residence a couple of days ago, but there is no clarity on what actually transpired.
KANGRA STRONGHOLD
Kangra is considered to be a stronghold of Kumar who has won this seat four times — in 1989, 1998, 1999 and 2014. However, this time round, the party has decided to field food and civil supplies minister Kishan Kapoor in Kumar's stead.
In the meeting with the CM though, it is believed that the two leaders might have discussed the probable candidature from Kangra and the other peeve: Prem Kumar Dhumal and family.
The 84-year-old Kumar is considered the founding father of the BJP in the state, but during Dhumal's regime, he was sidelined from the state politics. He managed to make a grand comeback in 2014 after then MP Rajan Sushant joined Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Kumar, at the time, had almost hung up his boots, but defeated his nearest rival, Chander Kumar of the Congress with a huge margin of 1.7 lakh votes.
Yet, when the Central Cabinet was named by new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kumar was not on it; he was instead put with other 75-plus leaders into the 'Margdarshak Mandal'.
DHUMAL DUO
Meanwhile, it is a well-known fact that two-time CM Dhumal's son Anurag Thakur is a common enemy for both these factions. It was Anurag's negative publicity amongst the voters that was instrumental in not only the defeat of his father in the Assembly polls, but worked in favour of his rivals in keeping Dhumal away from the power seat.
Now, speculation is rife that CM Thakur is wary of Dhumal's comeback, and unlike 2014, Anurag may find it hard to win Hamirpur seat.
In the 2014 elections, the 'Modi Wave' helped BJP sweep the state and it was repeated yet again in the 2017 Assembly elections as Anurag defeated Congress leader Rajinder Singh Rana. He then exacted revenge in 2017 by beating Dhumal from Sujanpur seat, by over 98,000 votes.
Historically, the BJP has won the Hamirpur Lok Sabha seat nine times barring 1996 when it lost the seat to the Congress. Rana, incidentally, learnt the tricks of political survival from Dhumal only and by beating his one-time guru by 2,900 votes in the midst of saffron wave, Rana has gone from being a political lightweight to a giant-killer. He could now be deployed to deliver another killer punch, this time against Anurag.
Therefore, in the hilly state, well known for its yo-yo politics, Congress is eying a shift after the uneven short rule of the new CM.
After all, it did deliver a clean sweep in the 1996 LS polls.
VIRBHADRA FACTOR
The coming LS polls could well define the future politics of this tiny state.
After Kumar's denial to contest elections, there are now also overwhelming signals that Himachal's most popular face and four-time CM, Virbhdara Singh, could well keep himself away from the campaign as well. This, not because of his failing health, but because the Congress leadership is now being controlled by his bête noire Sukhvinder Singh 'Sukhu'.
Going by the speculations, Singh's son Vikramaditya Singh is a strong contender to fight their stronghold Mandi. Going by the last three decades, the seat has been dominated by Singh, Sukh Ram and BJP's Maheshwar Singh, all of them winning it three times each. With BJP once again showing faith in their sitting MP, 60-year-old Ram Swaroop Sharma, it may become a seat to watch out for if a family member of Singh is fielded here. Sharma defeated Singh's wife Pratibha Singh by over 39,000 votes in 2014.
Shimla, however, had been the fiefdom of the Congress party till 2009 till it lost the seat in 2014. Singh would certainly like to regain this lost bastion before he retires from politics. BJP is well aware of the fact and that's why, it has fielded a new face — Suresh Kashyap, a sitting MLA from Pachad (Sirmour), to take on the Congress who may put in the experienced Dhani Ram Shandil.
But warning to the weary: Last time, Virender Kashyap won this seat for the BJP by defeating Congress' Mohan Lal Bragta by over 84,000 votes. The hill state will be an interesting battlefield of the old with the new.
KEY LEADERS
Jai Ram Thakur
The sitting CM, he will have to lead the charge and ensure that the 2014 BJP sweep was not a one-time event.
Anurag Thakur
Considered to be wild card, he was one of the factors that father Dhumal lost his seat. Now, the CM is wary of a comeback.
Shanta Kumar
While he is not contesting the election, his ouster from the list can turn out to be a gamble gone wrong for the BJP.
Virbhadra Singh
He is the most popular CM of the state, but may stay away from campaigning this season as he is unhappy with direction.
Vikramaditya Singh
Virbhadra Singh’s son is being considered as a strong contender to fight for the Congress from their stronghold Mandi.
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