Result Update:
Kolkata Dakshin or Kolkata South Lok Sabha constituency polled on 19th May in the last phase. Here is how the candidates fared:
Mala Roy has won by 1.55 lakh votes against nearest challenger Chandra Bose.
At 12.10 PM, TMC's Mala Roy is ahead of BJP's Chandra Bose by 2.60 lakh votes.
Constituency profile of Kolkata Dakshin:
Is the result in Kolkata Dakshin a mere formality, a foregone conclusion? The feeling may come if one sees the past track record where TMC has had an absolutely clean win history over the years. Since its inception, TMC has never lost Kolkata Dakshin. First Mamata Banerjee and then Subrata Bakshi won convincingly from this seat. Hence it is expected that Mala Roy will win easily against Chandra Kumar Bose and Nandini Mukherjee.
However, look deeper, and there are certain factors which will keep TMC on its toes on 19th when the 17.24 lakh voters have the chance to exercise their right. TMC's vote share took a sharp dip in 2014 in Kolkata Dakshin when Subrata Bakshi polled 36% of the votes. Since 1991, when Mamata Banerjee first won from this seat, earlier with Congress and later with TMC, she never polled less than 50%. Even during 2004, when she was the only TMC candidate to win, she logged over 50%. In 2011 bypoll, which was facilitated once Mamata resigned from Lok Sabha to become CM of the state, Bakshi got over 60%. From there, TMC's decline has been sharp.
The assembly segments under Kolkata Dakshin are Kasba, Behala Purba, Behala Paschim, Kolkata Port, Bhabanipur, Rashbehari and Ballygunge. Except Kolkata Port, Kolkata Paschim and Rashbehari to an extent, TMC can't afford to relax in any other places. Bhabanipur and Ballygunge is the hub of rich, affluent people, many hailing from the Marwari and Gujarati community who are expected to vote heavily for BJP. In Kolkata Purba, the Shovan Chatterjee factor looms large. Chatterjee former minister and the ex-Kolkata mayor is estranged from TMC. There were strong rumors of him joining BJP ahead of polls though it didn't materialise. However, he hasn't campaigned for the party. Will his supporters continue to back TMC is the big question.
BJP has fielded Netaji's great grand nephew Chandra Bose who contested assembly polls unsuccessfully against Mamata Banerjee. Bose is not exactly the strongest candidate around and doesn't add much except for his rich lineage. This is a seat from where Syama Prasad Mookerjee won in 1952 (then Calcutta South East) . Rightist Bharatiya Lok Dal won in 1977.
In the past, the likes of Indrajit Gupta and Priyaranjan Das Munshi too have won from here. Hence based on good candidates, South Kolkata has changed its loyalties till Mamata Banerjee's rise who lives in Kalighat, part of the Kolkata Dakshin constituency. So in that sense, this is Mamata's home ground.
CPI(M)'s Nandini Mukherjee, Jadavpur University teacher in the Computer Science department is well respected but handicapped by a poor organisation and general anti- Left sentiments prevailing in Kolkata. Congress has fielded Minati Chakraborty who hasn't got much traction.
And that brings us to Mala Roy. In many ways, Mala Roy is like Mamata Banerjee, albeit on a smaller scale. Both feisty, mass leaders with strong grassroots connect (pun intended). No wonder they fought politically in the past. Mala Roy and her husband Nirbed Roy had been strident critics of Mamata Banerjee. But what worked for Mala Roy was her track record as a councilor. So once she buried the hatchet and joined TMC, Didi too was magnanimous enough to appoint her as chairperson of KMC and now she has been nominated from South Kolkata, a seat won six times by Mamata Banerjee.
Mala Roy and Nandini Mukherjee both contested in 2014 too, ending up fourth and third respectively. This time though Mala Roy is expected to win and it remains to be seen how much trouble BJP and Left can cause her trouble. In the last week, Bengal politics was dominated by the Vidyasagar bust demolition fiasco. It remains to be seen considering it is a top recall for voters, how much of a factor it becomes for the Bengali voters. on 19th May
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