Kerala Elections 2016: How BJP made it a three-way contest in the state

The villages along the Tamil Nadu-Kerala Highway, from Nagercoil to Thiruvanathapuram, are sporting posters of various senior BJP including the candidates of the saffron party. For long, Kerala politics has been dominated by two parties— the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF). The state is now witnessing the rise of BJP with the party fighting for a slice of the electoral pie. In fact, all the exit polls conducted predict the BJP finally winning at least one seat in Kerala.

Narendra Modi's five election rallies covered almost entire Kerala as part of his campaign trail. BJP for the first time threw its weight by going for an alliance with the politcal party launched by leaders of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), which represents the backward Hindu community of Ezhavas.The BJP decided to allot 37 seats to its ally BDJS and contest the remaining of the total 140 seats in the Kerala legislative assembly.

The Saffron Surge

Several factors helped make inroads for the BJP in God's Own Country. The party has never won a seat in the state in the state election or the general election. But ever since Narendra Modi took leadership at the Centre, people who had written off the saffron party in the state began witnessing a surge in its prospects. Some of the prominent candidates contesting on BJP's ticket this election are the state's party president Kummanam Rajasekharan (Vattiyoorkavu), film director A Rajasenan (Aruvikkara), former Union minister O Rajagopal (Nemom), actor Bheeman Reghu (Pathanapuram) and former Indian cricketer S Sreesanth (Thiruvananthapuram) with actor Suresh Gopi as one of the star campaigners of the party.

Though the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) began to make its presence felt after BJP took over in the Centre, it has been active in the state for a long time. According to V Sasidharan, a resident of Varkala in Thiruvananthapuram and a third generation member of the LDF, a few years ago during the Ganesh Chaturthi idols of the lord were found in almost every nook and corner which was a bizarre sight in this part of the state. “We saw processions, celebrations of almost all the Hindu festivals being celebrated in a great fashion here in the villages across the state” he added.

Even if BJP doesn’t make it count in the elections, the emergence of RSS will be felt in the state due to the saffron party ruling at the centre, emphasized Sasidharan. This is most apparent in how the RSS sevak Rajasekharan was handpicked to lead the party in the state.

BJP's plan to bring Kerala into its fold began 11 months ago. In 2015, Amit Shah directed the local district functionaries to bring in all the Hindu organisations in the state. The party identified 2,500 panchayat-municipal wards for the local body elections and 90 Assembly constituencies for the Assembly polls in which the party did well. The party wooed the Nair Service Society (NSS), which traditionally leaned towards the Congress, but was rebuffed. However, SNDP General Secretary Vellappally Natesan visited Delhi to meet Amit Shah and Modi and discuss BJP prospects in the state. This led to BJP's alliance with BDJS but also reportedly caused a rift within the social organisation.

Making inroads

For BJP after a loss in Bihar and Delhi, the party's mentors gradually began looking towards the south with Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The presence of Modi in most of the major rallies and other senior leaders Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nirmala Seetharaman and Smriti  Rani provided fruition to the party's prospects.  

The attempts from UDF and LDF to thwart BJP from gaining ground came too late as the party was already drawing out ambitious plans for change in the state. While BJP is contesting in all 140 seats, it's focusing on the districts lining the borders shared with Tamil Nadu and Karnataka— Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad and  Kasargod. These are the same localities where the BJP gained prominence during the local body elections held six months ago by coming second and third. Not to leave out the Lok Sabha Election where the party gave a tough fight to the rival parties, finishing second place in Kasargod. The BJP had managed a 15% vote share in the civic polls. This is indicative of the steady increase in the party's presence in the state, with 6.03% in the 2011 assembly election and 10.83% in 2014 Lok Sabha election.

“Its Narendra Modi, in particular, is what is driving the people here in Kerala and the emergence of a new party in the state,” said 26-year-old Rahul Preeth S from Kochi, whose family has been supporting the LDF for decades. “The voices of Bharat Mata ki Jai are reverberating in almost all the places, which is new to Kerala citizens” he added.

Just as in the Centre, BJP has been batting for development politics in the state. In its manifesto for Kerala, the party has been emphasising inclusive development, focusing on each locality and their problems. Prior to the elections, the BJP made its district units work on preparing the manifesto by handing out video cameras to the units in order to study each locality.

O Rajagopal, the 83-year-old dark horse, who was BJP's sole hope in previous elections, is posing a stiff challenge to the rivals and the party is betting big on this leader. Rajagopal has been associated with the BJP for a long time and is a known face among the people of Kerala. Poll pundits say another possibility is of party president K Rajasekheran winning a seat. Could the party emerge as kingmaker this election?