Karnataka setback gives BJP time to reboot strategy-before it’s too late

For BJP and its Karnataka chieftain - BS Yeddyurappa, it is a case of so near, yet so far. The party failed to form the government in the Southern state despite coming agonizingly close to majority - as Siddaramaiah’s 55-hour stint ended with an emotional speech and hasty exit from Assembly before the National Anthem could be played. But as the dust settles down slowly, one can’t help but thinking that Karnataka fiasco gives BJP some early warning signs, which they can use in the run-up to the 2019 elections.

When BJP weaned away a big part of Congress voters in 2014, it was on the plank of being a ‘party with a difference’. PM Modi’s slogan of being ‘na khauanga, na khane dunga’ resonated with the urban youth, who were sick of the scam-ridden UPA 2 government getting virtually paralysed due to the baggage of its past.

For them, BJP-Modi was a whiff of fresh air in a beleaguered political discourse. While PM’s personal credibility still remains sky high and he has run an incredibly tight ship when it comes to scams perpetuated from within the government, yet the party has failed to hold on to its high moral ground. A lot of it is owing to the aggressive methods used in cobbling up numbers in Manipur, Goa. But what BJP tried in Karnataka was much more audacious than their past attempts, with the entire world watching.

Throwing caution to the wind, the party openly tried to wean away opposition MLAs to gain numbers, resulting in missteps. In reality, BJP played its card openly just anticipating that opposition would roll over. In short, they underestimated the opposition who were willing to do anything required to hold on, including knock on SC’s door at midnight. The last time, a BJP government in Centre took victory for granted, they were handed a rude shock by the electorate in 2004. Hence the party can’t allow to let their guard down or take the opposition for granted.

On the other hand, being ruthless operators doesn’t necessarily mean doing away with minimum propriety as an ode to chalta hai politics or rationalizing it by talking about dharma like some right wingers on social media. The means don’t justify the ends, when the end is similar to what promised to end. PM Modi has promised, quite infamously, time and again to make India Congress-mukt. Sadly, the BJP which has long claimed is starting to resemble what it promised to vanquish.

(PM Modi being congratulated after BJP emerged as no 1 party in Karnataka- PTI) 

Sure, Congress may have got away with many errors of omissions and commissions in the past, but that’s no excuse to give BJP a free pass now. Hence brazenly courting MLAs wasn’t exactly the right strategy. BJP could have waited a bit; the internal contradictions of Congress and JD(S) were enough for the alliance to collapse organically. But in the quest of ticking off another box in its Congress-mukt project, the party acted in haste with no fall-back plan. It was also shockingly brazen to see a general secretary of the party bragging that they ‘had Amit Shah’, hinting that the BJP president would use any mean necessary to get the party over the finishing line.   Hence when SC intervened and reduced their time to prove their majority, BJP was left without any aces.

While it’s a bitter defeat for now, the party needs to take the right lessons from it. One is hyper-activism can scare away potential allies and solidify opposition. Many of BJP’s allies today are wary that the party would just take away their political space. Shiv Sena is a prime example.  There is no reason for Uddhav’s party to bicker with BJP apart from the fact that they are both fighting for the core Hindu votes. Maharashtra with 48 MPs is a key battleground state, and BJP would like Sena on board to take on Congress- NCP regime. But that would need humility from their part, probably a few concessions. Is BJP willing to go that extra mile?

Another lesson for the party is focusing more on positive messaging. BJP, a primarily urbane party got lesser seats than Congress in Bengaluru, where the voting percentage was less than average. So, it is a plausible assumption that many of BJP’s core voters didn’t feel the urge to go out and caste their electorate. What’s causing this urban apathy?  Is it just owing to poor candidate selection or overall incoherence in messaging? In 2014, a record vote percentage was a big reason behind BJP going up to 282. It polls incredibly well in 18-35 age groups. Thus, it needs to get that demographic to vote. The party needs to blunt opposition’s ‘pakoda jibe’ by laying out tangible roadmaps of job creation. It needs to again attract the moderates and the undecided voters in large numbers. 

(Kumaraswamy after Yeddyurappa announced resignation- afp)

Thirdly, the party runs the risk of being too dependent on PM Modi. One of BJP’s strong strength was the presence of strong local satraps with central leadership coming to their help from time to time. But that didn’t happen in Karnataka. Despite BS Yeddyurappa’s attempts, the party was languishing before PM Modi entered the battlefield. PM with his unquestionable charisma, art of obfuscation, changing the goalpost and creating disruption managed to swing the tide in BJP’s favour though it wasn’t enough finally.

 The party was polling at 33-34% in the opinion polls. It ended up with 36.2% and most importantly virtually sweeping its fertile catchment areas. Thus, it virtually maxed out its potential, but that only happened after PM Modi stepped in. In Gujarat too, PM Modi had to step in and save the day.  In non- Hindi speaking states, BJP needs good local leaders to supplement PM Modi’s efforts. Else, even Modi with his high approval ratings will find it hard to take on the might of the opposition which is increasingly coalescing just for the sake of their political survival.

The saffron outfit has had a dream run after 2014 elections. It has only lost one state where it was in power, that too as junior ally in Punjab. But as 2019 beckons, the party has to shield against complacency, scaring off current and potential allies. It needs the fine balance between doing everything to hold on to its power and not looking desperate in the process of doing so.

Optics and nuances matter to voters even in 2019, in the age of mind numbing decibel debate on television. The Machiavellian principle states that, “it is difficult for a ruler to be both feared and loved, it is much safer to be feared than loved, if one of the two must be lacking”. It may be perfect for The Prince but in India, a mix of both is ideal as that as that is the ‘effectual truth’ here. Modern-day Chanakya may have to write a few pages of his own.