J&K numbers game: Why Mehbooba Mufti was forced to resign and Governor's rule is inevitable

Politics is the art of the possible. And nowhere, was it better exemplified than Jammu and Kashmir, where two political parties with completely divergent ideologies came together to ‘respect the mandate of the people’. It lasted for nearly three years, but out of the blue, BJP pulled the plug on the shaky alliance today.

Ironically, it was Ram Madhav, the architect of the alliance who announced its demise. Shortly after the writing was on the wall, Mehbooba Mufti resigned. 

But was she compelled to resign? Was there no other way around? Let's look at the numbers from the last J&K assembly election (held in 2014) to get more clarity. 

In the 2014 Assembly election, out of 87 contestable seats, PDP won 28 seats. BJP got 25, National Conference won 15 and INC was left with 12 seats. Smaller parties also won a smattering of seats. JKPDF and CPI(M) won one each, JNKPP got two seats and independents were victorious in three seats.

In J&K, the half-way mark is 44. With BJP out of the alliance, PDP would need 16 more MLAS to retain power. The National Conference, which is the main Opposition, has no reason to prop up the minority government. On the other hand, the Congress has also made it clear it wouldn’t support PDP.

Ergo, there was no way for PDP to maintain a majority in the J&K Assembly. No other possible combination reaches the 44-mark with even a BJP-NC alliance failing to make the cut. The NC was part of the NDA during the Vajpayee era but in its current iteration has veered away from the BJP and it makes no sense for the two parties to come together, just before next year’s Lok Sabha poll.

As things stand, Governor’s rule is inevitable in the state. However, with Jammu and Kashmir voting in a completely different pattern in the last few elections, a clear mandate may again elude the state in the near future. 

With inputs from PTI