In Indus water treaty, India finds a powerful option against Pakistan

Even as India raised the ante further, signaling threat to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), the two main political formations – the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress – came out all guns blazing against Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's address at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), questioning the neighbouring country's "complete denial" of the terror emanating from its soil. At the United Nations as well, Afghanistan joined India to squeeze Islamabad, with its vice-president Sarwar Danesh blaming the country for training, equipping and financing of terror groups like Taliban and Haqqani network.

Under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) – brokered by the World Bank and signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960 by Nehru and Pakistan president Ayub Khan – six north Indian rivers were divided between the two countries.

Despite being a lower riparian state, Pakistan has been granted exclusive rights of three Kashmir rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chinab, in lieu of India controlling three eastern rivers, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej, all flowing from Punjab.

These rivers irrigate Pakistan's food bowl in East Punjab and Sindh provinces. The treaty, which braved two full-fledged wars of 1965 and 1971 and a limited Kargil war of 1999, has come under cloud with External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup putting a question mark over its continuity. "There are differences over the treaty. For any such treaty to work, it is important that there must be mutual trust and cooperation. It can't be a one-sided affair," he said. Over the years, many analysts have been recommending review of this treaty in view of Pakistan's hostility towards India and more so because these three rivers are lifeline for southern Punjab regions, nursery of terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM).

"If Pakistan wishes to preserve the Indus treaty, despite its diminishing returns for India, it will have to strike a balance between its right to keep utilising the bulk of the river system's waters and a corresponding obligation (enshrined in international law) not to cause palpable harm to its co-riparian state by exporting terror," said noted analyst Brahma Chellaney. But another group of experts believe that International Tribunal will soon intervene to restore this treaty and also there is no way to lock or use water of these three rivers in Kashmir and they cannot be linked to any other river with mighty Pir Panchal mountains insulating them from rest of the country.

India also on Thursday expressed diplomatic victory in noting that Pakistan Prime Minister got no support from the international community in his address to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) previous night as none of the 50 countries that spoke referred to the issues on which he had devoted 80% of his speech. Swarup said the UN Secretary General even did not mention a dossier reportedly handed over to him by Nawaz and instead made it clear that he would not intervene in the Kashmir issue that he wants resolved bilaterally.

SAARC SUMMIT: Swarup also kept up the suspense on whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will boycott the 19th SAARC summit to be held on November 9 and 10 at Islamabad and Murree. "Every question does not have yes or no answer," he quipped.

On India itself declaring Pakistan a "terror state", Swarup said it requires internal legislative processes. He also rejected the idea of India breaking diplomatic ties with Pakistan. He referred to the demarche issued on Wednesday by the foreign secretary to Pakistan High Commissioner and said no such diplomatic protest could be issued if there are no diplomatic relations.

Meanwhile, both BJP and Congress warned Pakistan for meddling in India's internal affairs by raking up the Kashmir issue. Congress spokesman Abhishek Manu Singhvi attacked Sharif for attacking terrorism with a self-denial of the terror unleashed by his country. "Pakistan doesn't realise that when they speak like this they are making a joke out of themselves," he said, asserting that Pakistan is the biggest exporter of terrorism in the world.