On the current form Chief Minister Raman Singh appears to have a distinct edge despite a discernible anti-incumbency sentiment caused by charges of corruption against some of his ministerial colleagues
Though the Assembly election in Chhattisgarh is more than a year away it is interesting to see how the three key players BJP, Congress and Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress are positioning themselves to capture the voter’s mind-space.
On the current form Chief Minister Raman Singh appears to have a distinct edge despite a discernible anti-incumbency sentiment caused by charges of corruption against some of his ministerial colleagues. The division in the Congress ranks and the inability of the current party leadership to make the most of several public issues have made life easier for Raman Singh whose party is assured beneficiary of the RSS cadre’s vast reach in the state.
BJP’s victory margin has been shrinking over the last three elections. The difference between the vote shares of the Congress and the BJP was 2.5% in 2003, 1.7% in 2008 and 0.7% in 2013. The gap in number of seats won by the two parties declined from 13 to 12 seats to 10 seats.
With such scenario it would be interesting watch Jogi’s impact. Precisely a year after naming his party as the Janata Congress, Chhattisgrh Ajit Jogi, the first and only tribal chief minister so far in the state that boasts of over 32 per cent tribal population, remains in focus for his ability to change electoral equations. Jogi parted with the Congress on June 6 last year.
On the traditional test of drawing crowds Jogi remains ahead of the Congress leaders Bhupesh Baghel and T S Singhdeo. On any given day there are scores of people thronging Jogi’s house unlike those of the Congress leaders. His background as mechanical engineer, bureaucrat and his articulation in English, Hindi and local Chhattisgarhi and reach in the entire state makes him a formidable leader. Congress is deluding itself in suggesting it remains unaffected by Jogi’s divorce. As his party’s name suggests his focus is on state and he is not showing any national aspirations. That makes both the rival parties are wary of him. One thing more, during the years, Raman Singh’s “think tank” team headed by Dr. Aman Singh has master minded the art of collecting relevant political intelligence and to handle any difficult situation.
Jogi had elbowed out heavyweights like Motilal Vora and the Shukla brothers, Shyamacharan and Vidyacharan to become the first chief minister of the state in 2000. He had pulled off a coup of sorts by engineering the defection of 13 BJP MLAs while he was the chief minister.
Though the BJP has been a major beneficiary of Jogi’s manipulations over the past year it knows his potential to be the king maker in the event of a hung assembly.
Jogi claims his party has emerged as bigger challenge for the BJP and the next assembly elections will be fought between BJP and Janata Congress.
Jogi’s party is set to launch state-wide ‘Jan Jan Jogi Abhiyaan – Ab Sarkar ‘Chhattisgarh’ ki Hogi’, campaign. As a novel idea Jogi will make public his affidavit on a stamp-paper reflecting his promises to 2.5 crore people.
Jogi said his political outfit is the first in the country which is not releasing party manifesto, but an affidavit by which he swears to fulfil his promises.
Congress can’t be written off even while it is at the receiving end of the government, the Maoists and Jogi’s attacks. But it will have to overcome the strong cadre of RSS, Jogi’s negative virtues and Raman Singh’s established credentials.
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