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Gujarat polls: Swing seats decisive in Bhavnagar

Mahuva and Gariyadhar can tilt the district in BJP's favour.

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The district dominated by the Leuva Patel and Koli communities will level maximum damage to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to ground reports, the BJP may not get a single seat of the total five here in contrast to 2007, when the saffron party had four seats including one held by cabinet minister, Dileep Sanghani. The Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) as well as the Congress is pulling out all the stops for their campaigns here. Both parties are relying on the anti-incumbency against the minister.

The Leuva Patel community’s initiative – may also be termed the Kodaldham effect – is at play here. To add to this, the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) is also campaigning hard against the Modi government. Amreli is the sole district where the BKS is most active.

Despite a tough battle, the district will be a sail-through for Congress candidate, Paresh Dhanani. In Dhari, Nalin Kotadia, son of former BJP MLA Mohan Kotadia, will lend success to GPP. He is riding his luck with a clean public image and the Leuva magic.
Bhavnagar: Six from 8 for BJP

Of the nine seats of Bhavnagar district, BJP had comfortably won eight in the 2007 elections, while one seat had gone to the Congress. However, the ruling party’s tally is likely to reduce to six seats here, this time around. After delimitation, there are now Bhavnagar Rural, Bhavnagar East, Bhavnagar West, Palitana, Gariyadhar, Mahuva, Talaja, Botad and Gadhada constituencies in the district.

Apart from delimitation, other factors including distribution of caste dominated votes, anti-incumbency, and the public image of candidates play significant roles.
While the Mahuva, Talaja, Bhavnagar East, Bhavnagar West and Bhavnagar Rural constituencies seem to be comfortably in the BJP’s pockets, Congress is making strong claims on the Botad and Gadhada seats.

The Bhavnagar Rural seat will be a race to the finish between the BJP’s Koli leader, Parshottam Solanki and Congress’ Shaktisinh Gohil. Here, Solanki might edge past with 1,500-2,000 more votes.

Jury still out on Palitana, Gariyadhar
Palitana and Gariyadhar are two seats from Bhavnagar district where it is difficult to reach a clear conclusion. Palitana’s sitting BJP MLA Mahendrasinh Sarvaiya is contesting against Congress’ Koli candidate Pravin Rathod. Here, even GPP candidate, Rasik Bhingradiya cannot be ignored. Palitana has a large share of Koli voters from the now-dissolved Shihor constituency, which may lean the scales in favour of Congress’ Koli candidate. In this scenario, if Bhingradiya, a Patel, manages to clinch the Patel votes, it would be difficult for the BJP to retain its seat. Similarly, in Gariyadhar, BJP’s sitting MLA Keshu Nakrani, from the dissolved Shihor seat, is facing the anti-incumbency factor.
Mahuva’s sitting BJP MLA Dr Kanu Kalsaria is also contesting under his Sadbhavna Manch banner. While it is believed that GPP’s Katrodia, a Patel, would damage the BJP’s vote share, chances of either Dr Kalsaria or Congress’ Mangukia clinching the seat are higher.

Mahuva and Gariyadhar can tilt the district in BJP's favour

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