Gujarat Elections 2017 | Highest turnout in South Gujarat, Congress buoyant

South Gujarat, which saw a near sweep by the BJP in the 2012 elections, witnessed the highest turnout in the firest phase of Assembly polls on Saturday. As against the average turnout of 68% in the state in the first phase of polling, all seven districts in south Gujarat, including Surat, recorded more than 70% voter turnout, officials said.

According to the Election Commission, Navsari district recorded 75% voter turnout, the highest in the state. Approximately 73% voter turnout was recorded in Narmada and Tapi, while Bharuch, the home town of Congress leader Ahmed Patel, saw 71% polling. Surat and Dangs also saw more than 70% turnout. Incidentally, in these districts, the 14 tribal dominated seats saw even higher turnout.

Even as Chief Minister Vijay Rupani said that the high turnout would work in BJP's favour and the party would sweep the elections, many believe that anti-incumbency contributed in a big way to the high polling, especially in Patidar dominated seats in Surat.

Of the 35 seats in Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Tapi, Valsad, Navsari and Dangs districts that form the south Gujarat region, the BJP had won as many as 28 in the 2012 elections, including a clean sweep in Surat city where it won all the 12 seats, while Congress had won just six. However, a repeat of the performance is seen as highly unlikely.

The Patidar anger towards the BJP over denial of reservation benefits to the community is seen as a factor that would hurt the party in the elections. In a bid to minimise the impact of this, the BJP had dropped four of its five MLAs, and fielded new faces in Patidar dominated seats in Surat city. However, high turnout in each of these seats could be an ominous sign for the party. While Kishore Kanani, the lone Patidar MLA from Surat to be repeated, exuded confidence that the community would again support his party, a Congress leader in the Diamond City said that his party was confident of winning three of the five Patidar dominated seats. "The anger among Patidar voters towards BJP is clearly visible. The BJP may deny this, but it will have to accept it on December 18," said a Congress leader. If this happens, it would be the first time since 2002 that Congress will win a seat in Surat city.

The party had failed to win even a single seat in the city in 2007 and 2012 polls. It had last won the Surat East seat in 2002, which has a considerable minority population. A party worker said that Muslims voted in large numbers from the constituency on Saturday.

Even though demonetisation and GST dealt huge blows to textile, diamond and other industries in Surat, the BJP is confident of retaining seats such as Udhna, Choryasi, Majura, Olpad, Surat West and Limbayat seats. However, its vote share could see a decline, said party insiders.

In Surat district, senior minister Ganpat Vasava is likely to record his fourth straight win from Mangrol (ST) seat. Congress leader Tushar Chaudhary is also expected to give a tough fight to sitting MLA from Mahuva (ST) seat Mohan Dhodiya.

In Bharuch, BJP had won four out of five seats in 2012, but it faces a challenge in retaining all four. Strongman and sitting MLA Chhotu Vasava, who is contesting from Jhagadia (ST) on the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) symbol in alliance with Congress, is also expected to win. In Navsari, the BJP had won three out of four seats, and the result is expected to remain the same.

In Narmada, BJP had won both Nandod (ST) and Dediapada (ST) seats in 2012. However, Chhotu Vasava's son Mahesh, who had lost the last time, could avenge his loss this time. The Congress has not put up a candidate from the seat this time.

In tribal-dominated Tapi, the BJP and Congress had shared the honours by winning one seat each in 2012. A repeat of the same is expected this year. Congress is also confident of retaining the Dangs (ST) seat. BJP has repeated all three of its sitting MLAs in Valsad, viz. Kanu Desai, Bharat Patel and Raman Patkar, and they are unlikely to disappoint, said insiders. However, the two tribal dominated seats of Dharampur and Kaprada are likely to go to Congress again.

WILL DIAMOND CITY THROW UP A SURPRISE

• In a bid to minimise the impact of this, the BJP had dropped four of its five MLAs, and fielded new faces in Patidar dominated seats in Surat city. 
• The 14 tribal dominated seats saw even higher turnout.
• Many believe that anti-incumbency contributed in a big way to the high polling, especially in Patidar dominated seats in Surat.
• In Surat district, senior minister Ganpat Vasava is likely to record his fourth straight win from Mangrol (ST) seat. 

Take money, give vote: Video goes viral

 A video showing a man distributing money to voters of Desaiwadi going to exercise their franchise has gone viral on Saturday. The video is reportdely from Umer Sadi of Pardi Constituency in Valsad. The video taken between 8 to 9 am allegedly shows the nephew of BJP candidate Kanu Desai giving Rs100 to each voter. The video also shows him noting down their name in the list.