From Manipur to Kashmir, security forces a major target of terror groups

Sunday's attack allegedly by Pakistan-based militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, on an Army brigade headquarter in Uri, killing 18 soldiers is one of the most brazen acts of terror, inflicting a high number of casualties on armed forces. All the major terror strikes, this year, show that security forces have been the main target of insurgent and terrorist groups in all the three theatres of conflict in the country: Kashmir, Left Wing Extremism (LWE) zone and the North East.

So far in 2016, there have been eight major terror attacks in the country (with five or more casualties) with seven on the security forces, military establishment or convoys, claiming 61 lives of security personnel. The other attack was carried out by the National Democratic Front of Bodoland in Kokhrajhar, Assam, killing 14 civilians.

World over, there has been an upward tick in terrorism attacks linked with global Islamist extremist groups the Islamic State, Al Qaeda and Boko Haram responsible for some of the violent and brutal acts of terror. The 2015 Global Terrorism Index by the Institute for Economic and Peace think tank states that IS and Boko Haram are responsible for 51 per cent of all terrorist deaths in the world. The IS, in particular, has carried and co-ordinated over 70 attacks not just on its turf in Syria and Iraq but also exported it to Europe, America and Africa and Asia, earning it the tag of the deadliest terrorist group. The unpredictable nature of attacks spurned by lone wolves, suicide bombers, radicalised individuals on social media and returning foreign fighters killing a large number of civilians as seen in Paris, Orlando, Baghdad and Dhaka have marked the new reign of terror.

In India, which ranks sixth in the terror index's inflicted countries in the world, this trend is turned over its head as the threat of violence is not manifested from the unknown enemy, random lonewolves or radicalised jihadis -- though state police and the National Investigation Agency has busted half-a-dozen IS-inspired cells and arrested over 40 individuals before any attack could take place. Instead it is the known enemy, terror groups facilitated from Pakistan and insurgent groups operating in the Naxal areas, North East, which continue to inflict maximum damage and remain the biggest threat to the security.

Major General Dhruv Katoch (retired), former director Centre for Land Warfare Studies, who has served in both Kashmir and North East, says the marked rise in attacks on military establishments, convoys and security forces is a strategic move by Pakistan to bring focus back on Kashmir, create a flashpoint and force the international community to step in to resolve the 'dispute'.

"This strategy suits the interests of Pakistan military to maintain leverage on their 'assets' and keep the conflict in Kashmir simmering,'' he says. Gen Katoch adds that while jihad and radicalisation continue to be a threat, it is secondary in nature. "The biggest threat comes from the known enemies.'' Data on South Asia Terror Portal (SATP) records casualties of 64 security forces in J&K as against 9 civilians in terror attacks.

Attacks against security forces are also symbolic and directly targeted at Indian government and sovereignty, says Animesh Roul, strategic analyst studying terrorism and security at the Delhi-based Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict. "Non-state violent actors think that targeting security forces is legitimate act of war. They want to show the world they are fighting against an occupation army.''

Naxals, insurgent groups in the North East and militant groups based in Pakistan, believe they are fighting to overthrow the Indian government. In LWE affected districts civilians-- 91 casualties this year-- equally face the wrath of Naxals who are targeted for being police informers.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's diplomatic outreach in the region has not brought the stability and peace on India's border fronts as militant groups in Pakistan and Myanmar frequently targeted the armed forces in Punjab, Kashmir and Manipur this year. The ambush on the convoy in Chandel, Manipur last year, killing 18 soldiers, was met with retaliation, where the Indian army for the first time carried a surgical strike by crossing into Myanmar in the hot pursuit of NSCN (K) militants. This did not deter other militant groups a coalition of PLA, UNLF and PREPAK from plotting another ambush in Chandel district on a convoy of Assam Rifles killing six men, in the month of May.

Although insurgency in the North East is on a decline, active rebel groups of Nagas and Kuki's in the Indo-Myanmar border continue to draw support from pockets of local population in Nagaland, Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya. It is this little people's support the insurgent groups fear to lose, says Col Vivek Chadha, scholar at Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), if they attack civilians. "It is a carefully calibrated move to target security forces and infrastructure. Targeting civilians is not in favour of these groups as they will lose popularity and can't justify their movements.''