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Farmers will have to brace up for another spell of unseasonal rains: Meteorological Department

Farmers across northern India and central India may have to brace for more unseasonal rain and even hail as the India Meteorological Department has predicted another wet spell between March 29 and April 1-2. According to the agriculture ministry 50 lakh hectares of crop has already been damaged due to unusually heavy rains witnessed in March.

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External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj inspecting damaged crops during her visit in hailstorm-affected areas in Vidisha district of Madhya Pradesh
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Farmers across northern India and central India may have to brace for more unseasonal rain and even hail as the India Meteorological Department has predicted another wet spell between March 29 and April 1-2. According to the agriculture ministry 50 lakh hectares of crop has already been damaged due to unusually heavy rains witnessed in March.

What is the cause for unseasonal rains?
"Another rainfall spell is likely to commence on March 29 and may continue for four-five days. A western disturbance (strong winds from Mediterranean Sea that cross Jammu and Kashmir) is approaching and it will bring in moisture," said BP Yadav, director, IMD, National Weather Forescasting Centre.

Which states are affected by unseasonal rains?
IMD's statistics show that in the first three weeks of March alone, regions such as western Uttar Pradesh (59mm), eastern Madhya Pradesh (70.6mm), Punjab (61.5mm), Vidarbha (64.1) were some of the worst affected due to heavy unseasonal rain. Rabi crops, ready for harvesting were flooded and according to experts, more than Rs.10,000 crores of crops were damaged. "The farmers are in a dire situation as they have to repay farm loans. Eastern UP, Vidarbha, Punjab and Haryana were worst hit as harvesting was around the corner," said Sudhir Panwar, professor, University of Lucknow and member, planning commission, Uttar Pradesh. Wheat was the worst affected crop followed by pulses, potatoes and oil seeds. According to the agriculture ministry India's food grains production is estimated to decline by 3.2 per cent at 257.07 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) as against 265.57 million tonnes in the previous year.

What should farmer's expect monsoon season?
In the long run though, there is good news on monsoon. Despite the bleak forecast of more rains, predictions for the impending monsoon season are positive. Met officials said that the El Nino weather phenomenon – marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures – that causes droughts in south Asia is active but would not be strong enough to affect the overall monsoon this year.
"The El Nino phenomenon is not the only factor that affects monsoon. Yes, it is certainly active, but our forecasting models currently show that even if it picks up it won't harm the prospects of the monsoon," said DS Pai, director, long-range forecasting division, IMD, Pune.

RV Kulkarni, former advisor to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, added, "In 1997, the El Nino conditions recorded were the strongest ever. But it did not affect monsoon in India. Various other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean) and conditions in the South China Sea have a bearing on the monsoon."

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