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Exit polls analysis - BJP storms ahead with Narendra Modi 'wave'; Congress falls behind

Monday, 12 May 2014 - 10:00pm IST | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA Web Team

As the exit poll results are being declared, general trends are being drawn. While Narendra Modi's BJP is showing gains in almost every state except Karnataka and Kerala, Congress performance is dwindling to say the least. 

*As far as vote percentage is concerned, BJP polled 30%, Congress 21% and others polled 49%, as per CVoter. 

*NDA will get 261-283 seats, UPA will get 110-120 seats and others will get 150-162 seats: India Today/CICERO survey

*In Karnataka, BJP to bag 18 seats, Congress 9, JD(S) 1 and others 0: Times Now-ORG survey. 

*On the other hand, as per CNN-IBN/CSDS survey, in Telangana TRS will win 10 seats, Congress 04 seats and BJP to win 03 seats. 

in Telangana, BJP-TDP to get 2 seats, Congress 3 to 5, TRS 8-10 seats and Left 2 seats: Times Now-ORG survey

In Bihar BJP and allies to get 28 seats, Congress and allies to get 10 seats and JD(U) to get 2 seats, as per IndiaTV-C voter survey. Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats. 

Cvoter survey: In Bihar BJP and allies to get 28 seats, Congress and allies to get 10 seats and JD(U) to get 2 seats

Cvoter gives NDA 289 seats and Congress 101 seats overall. AAP will get 5 and others will get 148 seats

NDA to get 272 to 283 seats, UPA to get 110 to 120 seats all over the country according to Aaj Tak. BJP to get six seats in Delhi

BJP to get 46 seats in Uttar Pradesh, Congress 08, Samajwadi Party 12 and BSP 13 seats as per ABP News/AC Nielson survey. 

Read: LIVE Exit polls 2014: NDA to win 289 seats, Gujarat-22, Uttar Pradesh-54 for BJP : CVoters survey

Exit Polls trends for 2014: 

*The grand old party and its defeat: Congress has been attacking Narendra Modi and BJP but its campaign has been weak. While BJP's strategy to nationalise the entire elections and seek votes for Modi has worked wonders for the party, Congress' leader Rahul Gandhi seeking votes hasn't really made an impact. what the party could do is accept its defeat with a minimal number of seats and form a strong opposition.

Even Congress' allies such as National Conference and NCP did not support the party's last resort to attack Narendra Modi over the 'Snoopgate scandal' when everything else failed. 

*Does Narendra Modi's wave really exist: Though some may disagree, these elections have marked Narendra Modi's meteoric rise from state-level politics to national level politics. Eveything from striking a balance on grounds of development and removal of anti-incumbency factors to subtle speeches with Hindu nationalist agenda's have been used extensively. While Congress tried to copy the same method, it failed miserably. The pattern noticed on ground is that people want to get rid of anti-incumbent governance. Though Aam Aadmi Party's rise was meteoric in the assembly elections and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal went onto defeat Congress' Sheila Dixit and become the Chief Minister, his party fortunes fell quickly after he resigned from the post. 

*Who forms the government at the Centre?: Narendra Modi had set the poll pitch with his rally in Rewari, Haryana about how the next government will be. BJP is targetting a whooping 300+ seats and the party campaign is to win 272+ seats and form the government. If this well-crafted strategy succeeds and the party wins, Modi will be at the helm of affairs and deciding the future of the nation. Thisd government will be highly individualistic with concentrated powers and will try to set a balance for development and growth. What Narendra Modi will do to appease Muslim and other community voters is yet to be seen but the entire world is watching the show in the largest democracy. 

*Rise of people-centric parties and their fall: The Aam Aadmi Party which was formed on the agenda of 'pro-people politics', and corruption-free governance held promises and rattled the incumbent governance. But, after a failed performance, AAP was not able to make an impact nationally. With Arvind Kejriwal pitting himself against BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, all eyes are set to see this duel. Earlier, Kejriwal had used the same strategy against Delhi Ex-CM Sheila Dixit. 

*Local leaders making an impact nationally: Time is ripe for state-based parties to exert their signifance in these polls as big players are tying up with local leaders and parties. While BJP and its affiliation rSS has strong cadres who can take the message forward and help the saffron party come into power, the party has tied up with Apna Dal to secure votes. 

While Jayalalithaa has kept her options open to join BJP, Mamata Banerjee has attacked the party and called its leader as 'Donkey'. Experts suggest that this is a ploy by TMC and BJP to polarise votes and a future alliance between the two possible. 


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