During an active El Niño, Pacific Ocean waters see warming resulting in droughts across South and South-East Asia and even parts of the Africa.
After contributing to a below par monsoon last year and one of the worst droughts this summer, the El Niño weather phenomenon has ended, returning to a neutral state, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has said. "The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface," the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said. It added, "Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño."
During an active El Niño, Pacific Ocean waters see warming resulting in droughts across South and South-East Asia and even parts of the Africa. Scientists across world said that the El Niño, that has ended, was probably one of the strongest seen since 1996. In India, it caused a 14.3 per cent monsoon deficit in 2015 and the country is currently the middle one of the hottest and driest summers of all time.
The departure of El Nino though is making way for the other worldwide weather phenomenon of La Niña. This phenomenon is diametrically opposite of El Niño and ushers in heavy rainfall across South Asia, southeast Asia, Australia, Central America while North America experiences dry and chilly weather.
The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said, "International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios. The bureau has said that there is 50 per cent likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016.
While Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has signalled the end of El Niño, private weather forecaster Skymet said in its revised monsoon forecast that rainfall will be 109 per cent (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average, which is 887mm. It said that pockets of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh may see excess rainfall while Central India and west coast will see good rainfall. The second half of the monsoon will see better rainfall than the first half, the private forecaster added.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, "The El Niño is tapering off and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance". There are more chances of getting into La-Niña in the later part of this year. Under the influence of the cyclone Roanu, Monsoon arrived before time over the Andaman and has also advanced further. Conditions are now favorable for its timely onset over Kerala." Contrary to Skymet, the India Meteorological Department has said there will be a delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala.
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