Monsoon this year will start early on May 27 and it will be normal, private forecasting company Skymet says.
Monsoon this year will start early on May 27 and it will be normal, private forecasting company Skymet says.
Skymet's 'Monsoon Foreshadow' report says the onset of rains will be almost 3-4 days before the usual date of May 30 when it hits southern Kerala, proceeding to the northern parts of the state by June 1.
This means monsoon could hit Mumbai earlier than its usual onset date of June 10. Last year, monsoon arrived in Mumbai late -- in the second week of June. The city receives an annual average rainfall of 2598mm at Santacruz, while in south Mumbai it receives an annual average rainfall of 2200mm.
Skymet, in its forecast, has also said that the monsoon will 102% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887mm for the four-month period from June to September. June and July will see the strongest rainfall and it will gradually recede in August and September. The India Meteorological Department's long-range forecast though is not out and is expected by April 23.
Apart from the prediction of an early onset, more interesting is the forecast on conditions leading up to the actual monsoon. According to Skymet, unseasonal rains are likely to continue intermittently right through April and May when pre-monsoon showers are usually witnessed across parts of the country.
With the onset predicted earlier, this points to a continuous series of rain showers in the summer months. “We are confronting a situation that is not defined. Several parts of the country will receive rainfall in the remainder of April and even May,” said Jatin Singh, chief executive officer, Skymet.
“The El Niño is likely to continue into summer months and taper down thereafter. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the monsoon performance,” he said.
The El Niño is a weather phenomenon - marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures - that causes droughts in south Asia. It is active but would not be strong enough to affect the overall monsoon this year.
Even Meteorology officials believe that the phenomenon will remain active but weak. Elaborating on the trend of continuation of summer rains, Skymet has said that in the last week of April to the first week of May, there will be rainfall along the west coast and Gujarat.
In the second week of May, another spell of rainfall is expected over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra. It goes on to add that pre-monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong throughout May in North and North East India. But the company has forecast that there is no clear signal of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) emerging this year during monsoon.
IOD is one of the several strong factors affecting monsoon. IOD is the difference between sea surface temperatures in the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. A positive IOD favours monsoon systems on India's west coast.
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}