The nation will have to brace itself for more power cuts in the coming months thanks to ever increasing coal shortfall, dip in hydro-power generation due to deficient rainfall and increased demand due to October heat and the upcoming festive season. The aggressive buying of power on exchanges, especially by poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, have added to a surge in prices and pot of worries.
The states that will heat up the most due to this power crisis are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Bihar and Jammu & Kashmir.
In Maharashtra, those living in areas where arrears due to unpaid bills are high will face two to six hours of load-shedding per day. A similar situation threatens other states too where distribution utilities, due to weak financial condition, prefer load-shedding to balance increased demand, instead of procuring extra power.
An officer from South Eastern Coalfields Ltd, a Coal India subsidiary, admitted that reduction in coal supplies is a matter of grave concern. (S)he admits that this will impact exigency plan chalked out for building up stocks at plants.
According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data dated October 5, of the total 2,74,015.51 MW of generation capacity monitored, only 1,96,942 MW is available for supply. Generation projects with the capacity of 77,073.47 MW are under maintenance, which impacts power availability.
The coal deficit due to bottlenecks in rail transportation has severely impacted power generation. Out of the total 1,47,495 MW of thermal power projects tracked by CEA, as on October 8, 24 plants have coal stock below four and seven days.
Power sector expert Ashok Pendse observed that 24x7 power supply is a pipe dream in these circumstances. "If consumers want uninterrupted power supply, our generators are capable of giving it by consuming imported coal at a higher price. This will reflect in increase in tariff. It is up to consumers whether they want to pay more for regular power supply or undergo load-shedding," he said.
Prayas Energy Group co-ordinator Shantanu Dixit said coal availability is the critical issue as there is more than adequate capacity to generate power. "If coal is made available, power generation will be more," he said. "In the short term, the price on energy exchange ranges between Rs 8 and 18 per unit. However, only those states, who have properly planned and tied up power supply, will be able to manage the situation well."
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