DNA Edit: Hope is the way forward, aspirations hold the key

The BJP and its leadership will obviously review the loss of government in two or three states. 

Chhatisgarh will hurt, but the drubbing in Madhya Pradesh will hurt even more. Rajasthan is more or less on expected lines, though some pollsters had predicted a rout. Telangana and Mizoram have also voted on expected lines.

The three states in the Hindi heartland matter as they have the highest proportion of BJP-targeted aspirational voters. The three also have the lowest minorities vote share, which is lesser than the national average. The BJP's rise and success is dependent on the aspirational class.

This is the section of population, which had hoped that corruption and policy paralysis will be a thing of the past and their lot will benefit. This section appears to have gone against the BJP in these Assembly elections. Hence, the party lost seats in both urban and rural areas. While anti-incumbency and voters' fatigue can be blamed for the loss in MP and Chhattisgarh, there is more to the results.

It's important to recognise the undercurrent. The anti-corruption narrative is no longer a solution as it does not deliver economic growth or addresses the aspirations of the voters. People have very high expectations from political leadership when they are in the government.

Though the system remains the same, they have fond hopes that one individual will change their future. This is the hope on which elections are won – the desire that people have from the Modi sarkar about getting jobs, money and a house. But as French critic Jean Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote, the more things change, the more they remain the same. These aspirations cannot be easily forgotten.

Still, the Ram temple will now be back on the agenda as this loss will trigger some knee-jerk reactions. It also means that Congress, which has tasted success after a long time, will strengthen its Hindutva line. 

Therefore, the noise on these issues will rise with time and reach a crescendo as the Lok Sabha elections approach. Moreover, the BJP leaders' advantage, that it was unhindered by the baggage that accompanies those with long histories of working in Delhi politics, will no longer hold in 2019. Hence, the message may see a revision.

The BJP has thus far stressed on performance, nationalism, corruption and Hindutva. Maybe, now in the remaining six months, there might be a flurry of populist moves to appease aspirations of the core voter base.

Some BJP leaders claim that promises of loan waiver by Rahul Gandhi cost them Chhattisgarh. If loan waiver is a vote catcher, we may see this enshrined in the manifestos of all political parties.

More importantly, it shows that the rural crisis is real and farmers are feeling the hurt and are unwilling to clutch at promises made by politicians. Also, farmers' problems cannot be addressed overnight, as can be seen from the efforts in Maharashtra, where the government had to take back the APMC dissolution.

Vested interests are too many. Moreover, agriculture is not a pricing problem, but a logistical one. 

Farmers are unable to get the right price for their produce as they cannot afford to transport their produce to the right market. What is required is farmer-owned companies that can consolidate their produce and subsidise the logistics cost. Till that happens, the gap between urban markets and farmers' price will remain. It might not be too late for the government to come out with a model for doing this. It will at least help them engage with the farmers directly.

Listening to their woes will show that the government has empathy and humility. The jobs conundrum is a complex issue, but voters are eternal optimists. If the message is positive, empathetic and full of hope complex problems can have simple solutions. Negativity does not attract hope and incumbents have to be careful with it.

As the other side of this optimism is what psychologists call negative expectancy disconfirmation, which is higher in first-time voters or the aspirational class that came out to cast their ballot in 2014.

This is the class of voters, which can turn cynical about voting, talk about it endlessly on social media and spread it through videos. This is also the class which will determine the future of political parties in 2019.

Hope is the message!