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Desperate Pak Fuels Border Blitz

As Pakistan pushes terror & its Army shells border, indian forces give a fitting reply

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The Pakistani Army targeting an Indian forward post; groups of LeT and JeM terrorists waiting to cross the Line of Control (LoC), or the International Border (IB), with the help of Pakistani forces; terrorists along with regular Pakistani forces readying for cross-border raids…

These are regular intelligence alerts on activities across LoC, but a recent spike in their frequency, and the follow-up action, is worrying the security top brass. Those dealing with compilation of these alerts are on their toes, seeing a trend where most of these have turned out to be true.

"We have been flooded with such inputs over the last one year. On an average, there are 10-15 alerts daily, and mostly, they have turned out to be accurate," said an official, privy to these details.

Massive ceasefire violations

Based on human intelligence and technical surveillance, the Indian Army has identified a dozen trouble spots from where Pakistan can launch terrorists. "Heavy infiltration attempts are expected. The frequent ceasefire violations point to that," said an official. With little snowfall this winter, infiltration attempts have continued but most were foiled. In J&K, India shares with Pakistan a 198-km IB and a 740-km LoC.

The beginning of 2018 has been bloody. In a little over a month, more than 240 cases of ceasefire violations (unprovoked shelling and firing by Pakistani forces) have already been recorded. The Indian Army has lost eleven men in the first two months of this year. The last year's number of the November 2003 agreement violations was 860 — a four-time increase from 2016. This has also impacted daily lives of civilians, prompting the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) to form a study group to examine their problems.

The Indian Army carried out a surgical strike across LoC in September 2016, targeting terror launchpads and inflicting heavy casualties, to avenge an ambush by Pakistan-backed terrorists that killed 19 soldiers in Kashmir's Uri. But Pakistan has not acknowledged the damage. Since then, there have been frequent skirmishes between the forces.

The Indian Army carried out a cross-LoC raid, killing four Pakistani Army soldiers on December 25, 2017. The operation was planned soon after the Pakistani Army killed four Indian soldiers. Pakistan said in a statement that India's claims of crossing over were not true, calling them a figment of imagination.

Pakistan carried out heavy shelling last week, killing four Indian soldiers in Jammu's Rajouri sector, escalating fresh tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. India has again hit back. Army Chief General Bipin Rawat said at his annual press conference last month that the force has been responding to shelling from Pakistan by targeting its posts that aid terrorists and infiltration. "Pakistan has suffered heavy casualties — 3 to 4 times more than us. If we see a drop in infiltration, we are willing to respect ceasefire," he said.

After every skirmish, the Director Generals of Military Operations of both Armies speak to each other. And the cycle continues. "The LoC is a dirty game. It's a tit for tat situation and neither side is respecting the ceasefire agreement of 2003 resulting in violence increasing," said an official.

Local recruitment peaks

With the number of local terrorists in Kashmir at an all time high and massive infiltration attempts being planned, the summer is expected to be a tough one for Indian security forces. In 2017, the number of local youth who joined terror ranks was 127 — a 10-time increase since 2013 when the tally was just 13. Since then, the number has been increasing — 31 in 2014, 64 in 2015, 87 in 2016 and 126 in 2017.

According to official estimates, there are 358 terrorists active in Kashmir — 203 local and 155 Pakistani. "This is a dangerous trend. In the last few years, the number of locals being lured by terror organisations has increased, indicating that the youth are feeling disillusioned," said an official.

Around 264 terrorists are active in areas falling north of the Pir Panjal Range, constituting the Kashmir Valley. That's where Indian forces face a bigger challenge.

Lt Gen (retired) DS Hooda, who headed the Udhampur-based Northern Command and supervised the 2016 surgical strike, said it was in 2014 that locals started getting lured and this was linked to the upscaling of both border and hinterland violence after a relatively peaceful period between 2009 and 2012. "There was a pattern — those who lost friends or relatives in Army operations ended up joining terror groups," he said. As more locals were recruited more were killed. "This increased the cycle of violence."

It's in the same period since 2014 when stone-pelting incidents increased in the Valley adding to bloodshed and turmoil. There was a sense of oppression in the conflict-hit state, and an increased radicalisation worldwide also had an impact on the Kashmiri youth, sources said.

Security forces in J&K got success last year, killing 213 terrorists — the highest since 2010 that recorded 232 kills. But it did come at the cost of 80 casualties of security personnel. The number was same in 2016. With 342 terror-related incidents, highest since 2011, the cycle of violence remained high.

The high kills have not curbed terror strikes. Last week, Pakistani LeT commander Naveed Jatt was freed from a Srinagar hospital who also killed two policemen, raising serious questions on security arrangements. On Saturday itself, two Junior Commissioned Officers (JCOs) were killed after JeM terrorists stormed an Army camp in Jammu.

Stone-pelting mobs

Even though officials tracking Kashmir say things are getting better in the hinterland and the situation is not as bad, the start to the New Year has not been very encouraging. In January alone, there were at least nine major stone-pelting incidents in which security forces were targeted — the first one taking place on the first day of the year in Shopian. In five cases, the mob had over 100 people.

This included the one in Shopian on January 27 when over 300 people attacked an Army convoy and two civilians — another later succumbed to injuries — were killed in retaliatory fire. The incident has triggered a controversy as the J&K police registered an FIR against Army officials on charges of murder.

Army sources said, as part of daily area-domination exercise, there are 60-70 patrols in the hinterland. "Their job is to gather intelligence and ensure there is no mass mobilisation, and at the same time, win confidence of locals," said an official.

There have been 4,799 stone-pelting incidents reported in Jammu and Kashmir in the last three years in which 17 protesters and two security personnel were killed, the Home Ministry informed the Rajya Sabha last week. Giving a breakdown of the last three years, Union Minister of State for Home, Hansraj Ahir, said, there were 730 incidents in 2015, 2,808 in 2016 and 1,261 in 2017.

DINESHWAR SHARMA FACTOR

All eyes are on Dineshwar Sharma, the former Intelligence Bureau chief who has been appointed by the Centre as special representative to initiate a dialogue process in Kashmir. He has made frequent visits to the state, but there have been no signs of thaw as he has met people with little significance till now. The challenge is to initiate a dialogue with the separatist Hurriyat Conference.

THROWING TROUBLE

4,799 stone-pelting incidents reported by mobs in Kashmir in the last three years

730 incidents in 2015

2,808 in 2016

1,261 in 2017

17 protesters and two security personnel killed during this period 

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