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Dail 2018 Battle for States

As the battleground shifts to 8 more states, Kaushal Shroff explains the complex socio-economic dynamics there, and how these polls are crucial both for the Congress’ political relevance and PM Modi’s re-election prospects

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 A pitched battle for Gujarat saw the BJP come to power for a sixth straight term in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, but not without losing 16 seats to the Congress from its 2012 tally. While the electoral dust is yet to settle, the two parties are gearing up to face each other in eight states next year. These battles will set the tone for the general elections in 2019.

Of the four Northeastern states going to the polls in 2018, Meghalaya and Mizoram are ruled by the Congress, Tripura has a CPM government, while Nagaland has a conglomerate of regional parties, with the two big ones on the margins. The saffron party is already in power in three Northeastern states of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. It set up a North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in 2016 to extend its footprint in the region. The role of its strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, who came from the Congress, will be crucial when elections are held in the north east. 

But it’s the results from the four big states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh (all three BJP ruled) and Karnataka (Congress) that will be read more keenly to understand the nation’s mood, ahead of the Mother of all Battles. After the BJP swept to power at the Centre in 2014, it has wrested state after state from the Congress. It now rules 19 of India’s 29 states, an unprecedented feat.

DNA takes a look at socio-economic dynamics of these states, and how the coming polls are crucial for the Congress’ political relevance and for PM Modi’s reelection.

Karnataka

There are a number of overlaps between the political dynamics of Gujarat and Karnataka. Both states have complex caste arithmetics. Both, in some measure, have had trysts with communal politics. Both carry deep historical imprints of the Congress rule which has progressively been challenged by the BJP in the recent decades. 

But parallels between the two states often turn out to be misplaced. This is primarily because of the kingmaker role that JD(S) and it chief HD Kumaraswamy play in Karnataka. As per a survey conducted by a local news channel (one of the very few conducted for now), the 224-member Assembly is set to witness a fight to the finish between the BJP and the Congress, with JD(S) scoring close to 40 seats. One way or the other, prospects of the JD(S) performing strongly mean that both the Congress and BJP will be busy trying to strike a pre-poll alliance with the party. It’s a possibility that the two national parties abhor, given the bitter experiences of the past. 

For now, the BJP has already put its big guns to work. On December 20, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath gave a peek at what is likely to follow, when he said that the Congress was more interested in celebrating Tipu Sultan than worshipping Lord Hanumana. The BJP has also been fanning the mystery surrounding the death of Paresh Mesta, a 19-year-old who was found dead in coastal Karnataka on December 6. His death sparked communal tensions in the region and the BJP has accused the local administration of protecting the accused and destroying the evidence to Mesta’s death. CM Siddaramaiah has accused the BJP of using Mesta’s death as an electoral plank. The political battle has just started heating up.

Madhya Pradesh

The Congress hasn’t tasted power in MP for the last 15 years, leaving it demoralised and its organisational strength in a shambles. The BJP under CM Shivaraj Singh Chouhan has retained the popular mandate. But will he get a fourth term? The overhang of the Vyapam scam and the recurrent farmers’ protests can still rock the BJP’s boat. Consider this: Between FY01 and FY15, the annual average agriculture GDP growth rate of the state was an incredible 9.4 per cent, the second highest in India. However, the average monthly total income earned by MP peasants did not keep pace with the growth rate, and as per the latest NSSO data, it comes to a dismal Rs 6,210, against the all-India average of Rs 6,426, and miles behind Punjab’s Rs 18,059. CM Chouhan also finds his hands tied thanks to an over-stretched budget.

Relief meant to address farmers’ problems have climbed up from 15 per cent of the annual Budget to 50 per cent, consequently clamping down on the elbow space needed to allocate higher sums for infrastructure development. Additionally, grants from the Centre have also been cut back by 30 per cent in FY17. Meanwhile, the Congress is desperately in need of a new lease of life. 

Like Rajasthan, another tricky choice between three strong contenders bedevils Rahul Gandhi. While Guna MP Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia and Senior leader Digvijaya Singh are in Rahul’s inner circle, Chhindwara MP Kamal Nath has been instrumental in drumming up funds for the party for electoral and organisational expenses. There has been a buzz that either Scindia or Kamal Nath could be made Leader of House in the Lok Sabha with the state president post going to one of them. 

Even in the 2013 Assembly polls, Scindia was the party face, heading the campaign committee. Chouhan, who calls himself ‘mama’ (maternal uncle) of youngsters in the state to evoke a personal touch, has grassroots connect with voters and his humble image is a big asset for the BJP there.

Rajasthan

The Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh election results drowned out the the BJP’s sub-par performance in local body by-elections in Rajasthan. The Congress won four Zila Parishad seats, 16 of the 27 Panchayat Samitis and 7 of the 13 municipal wards. Rajasthan Congress president Sachin Pilot said the results were a reflection of the disillusionment that has set in within the people for the government.

CM Vasundhara Raje’s popularity has been tanking and her ties with BJP’s top leadership has been far from warm. Electoral history shows that Rajasthan has voted out the incumbent government since 1985. The only exception is the Congress win in 2008. Going by the trend and the mounting levels of farmer discontent in the state, the time is just right for the Congress to ride back to power. What could derail the Congress’s march though is the infighting between two prominent faces of the party: Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Congress president Rahul Gandhi will most likely be settling on one from amongst the two leaders, both of whom are capable of marshalling a loyal caste following of their own. Additionally, Rajasthan has shown itself to be vulnerable to the communal polarisation narrative. Will Rahul’s issue-based politics elicit the same enthused response as it did in Gujarat?

Chhattisgarh

In 2003 Raman Singh was picked by BJP veteran LK Advani to contest as the party’s chief ministerial candidate against Ajit Jogi. While Singh managed to meet Advani’s expectation, he did so with a wafer-thin vote share difference against the Congress. In 2008 and in 2013, when the state went to the polls, the people of Chhattisgarh showed their faith in him, giving him three consecutive stints as CM which will end in the second half of 2018. With 14 years as CM, he is the longest-serving CM in the BJP stable now with a pro-development image.

The public distribution system under him is one of the widest in India and its coverage has leapfrogged from 45 per cent in 2003 to 82 per cent in 2017. The food security scheme running in the state has been dubbed a major success with a reach of close to 65 lakh families. 

Anti-incumbency is at play against the BJP, but the Congress looks short of local leaders who can be pitched against Singh.
Most of Chhattisgarh Congress leaders are above 65, while the party’s organisational base is rife with infighting and factionalism. 

There has been speculation that some state Congress leaders were keen on bringing Jogi, who had parted ways last year, back into the party fold. But that seems a tough call given the bitterness many in the state unit have for Jogi and vice versa.

Meghalaya

Meghalaya, along with Mizoram, Karnataka and Punjab, makes for one-fourth of the states where the Congress exercises its limited and fast-eroding clout in India. For the last 15 years, Congress has been in-charge of the state of which Mukul Sangma has been CM for the last eight years. Anti-incumbency is staring the state government in the face and a dangerous mix of infighting and mass-defections threaten to spoil the electoral prospects of the party. Partly at blame here, claim local leaders, is the Congress headquarters, which hasn’t acted on the grievances against the working style of Sangma and party president DD Lapang. 

In 2017, the going became tougher for the Congress. Early in October, the party lost an old warhorse in Rowell Lyngdoh. The MLA from Mawkyrwat, who is credited with building the party’s foundation in the West and Southwest Khasi hills back in the 80s, quit after he was unceremoniously dropped from the post of the Deputy CM.

Subsequently, Lyngdoh joined the National People’s Party, founded by the late P A Sangma and a coalition partner of the NDA at the Centre. Following Lyngdoh’s examples are other legislators like Prestone Tynsong, MLA from Pynursla and Sniawbhalang Dhar and Ngaitlang Dhar, MLAs from Nartiang and Umroi respectively. Worryingly for the Congress, it is becoming a case of when it rains, it pours as three veteran leaders — DD Lapang, Health Minister Roshan Warjri and Deputy CM RC Laloo — chose to hang up their boots before the upcoming election. 

On the other hand, the BJP is making small but steady improvements. The party in August prevailed upon two independent MLAs to switch over to its side. Those in the know suggest that many defecting ministers from the Congress would have joined the BJP had it not been for the commonly held belief that the BJP is not tolerant of the lifestyle and food habits of the tribal people and Christians.

To counter this perception, the BJP has deployed Union Tourism Minister KJ Alphons, a former civil servant from Kerala who has spent a part of his youth in Meghalaya. Alphons has been keeping busy allaying fears of the Christian community at large and the church leadership that the BJP is not opposed to their way of life as is widely held.

In Meghalaya, apart from the Jaintia vote bank, the BJP will focus on wooing Christians.

Mizoram

The BJP so far hasn’t been able to open its account in the state unless one counts the five village council elections that the it won in 2015. Contrasted with the Congress’s presence in the state which goes back to the mid-80s, the BJP has precious little to show when it comes to marking its territory in the state. Mizo National Front, BJP’s ally in the NDA, was in power from 1998 to 2008 but since then has seen its member strength dwindle to single digits. Its current count is an embarrassing 5 MLAs in the 40-member Assembly while the Congress is sailing smoothly with 34 members. 

Mid-December, PM Modi addressed a rally in Aizawl and inaugurated a power project, in hopes that the gesture to some extent would help turn the tide for the party in Mizoram. However, sans organisational strength to reinforce the Centre’s message, chances are that the announcement will carry little weight by the time of the elections. However, the primary Opposition party MNF and Zoram Nationalist Party, an offshoot of the MNF, are doing their best in shaking the Congress’s boat. In November, the two parties opened a new front of attack against CM Lal Thanhawla, accusing him of not disclosing details of a Kolkata property held by him in an election affidavit. The controversy is far from over and going into the election, it could possibly take a high toll. 

Nagaland

The Nagaland People’s Council has been in power in the state for the last 14 years. In the 2013 elections, the Congress managed to acquire 8 seats, while the BJP bagged just 1. Even before the saffron party enters the fray, the popular narrative- that the BJP would crack down on beef consumption- about the party is fast becoming a roadblock to its election success. Besides, the optics snag, the NFP was cleaved in two camps as a no-holds-barred infighting erupted between the current CM T R Zeliang and party president Dr Shurhozelie Liezietsu. Governor PB Acharya and the Central government were also dragged into the government crisis. The BJP with its four MLAs lend its support to Zeliang camp, who was subsequently appointed the CM. It was in 2013 that the Congress suffered a massive drubbing with the party winning just 8 seats, a precipitous drop of 15 seats over its 2008 score. Interestingly, Aam Aadmi Party will also be making its first foray into the state. Reportedly, it is likely to contest from all the 60 seats of the Nagaland Assembly.

Tripura

In Tripura, both the BJP and the Congress are in for a tough contest against the Communist Party of India (Marxist) whose Manik Sarkar has had an uncontested run for the last 19 years. The BJP recently emerged on the state’s political scene after it managed to win over six MLAs from the Trinamool Congress camp. With this move, the BJP wiped out all the gains made by the TMC, unseating Sarkar will be an uphill battle as Tripura has been a Left bastion for the last 25 years. Since 1998, the CPM has inched its way from holding 38 seats in the Assembly to the 2013 tally of 49 MLAs. The Congress, on the other hand, has failed in making deeper inroads in the state, its tally never rising above the mark of 13 seats between 1993 and 2013. One outlier in this scenario could be the Trinamool Congress, which is desperately seeking a foothold outside of West Bengal and hopefully in Tripura. The party would be looking to overcome not just the defection setbacks but also better its earlier performance.

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