D-Day: Voters keep parties guessing

Even as exit polls have forecast an edge or an emphatic victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), political parties were keeping fingers crossed.

On Friday, a day ahead of counting of votes in five states, priests, astrologers and soothsayers were seen cashing in on the anxiety, with many leaders across states visiting temples, performing poojas and praying after supplicating before voters in the gruelling month-long campaign.

In the corridors of Parliament, MPs belonging to the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress leaders were discussing post- poll scenarios to prevent the imposition of President's rule in the wake of nobody securing the requisite numbers.

Many leaders agreed that UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav's statement opening the doors for Mayawati, whom he referred to as "bua (father's sister)" all along the election campaign, was aimed at killing two birds – one to prevent Mayawati from going with the BJP and the other to prevent a direct central rule.

UP is seen as a game changer and a virtual referendum on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi as well as Akhilesh Yadav. BJP chief Amit Shah visited the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) office in Mumbai.

Analysts believe that the elections would also decide the fortunes of Mayawati, whose Dalit vote bank is increasingly shrinking. Congress leaders exuded confidence that their alliance with the SP will halt the BJP juggernaut, and will lead the way for an Opposition unity in the run-up to the 2019 general election.

Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi said that exit polls in India have mostly got it wrong. "Those who do not learn the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it. The 2009 elections are a classic example. Most exit polls got it not only wrong but grievously wrong. So let us keep our balance, let us respect democracy. The reason why exit polls, though definitely better than opinion polls, get it wrong frequently is that they are most successful in a homogenous society - homogeneity in income pattern and living standards," he said. Rahul Gandhi also referred to the failure of exit polls to predict the Bihar outcome.

But the BJP ridiculed him, saying that the exit polls this time have only predicted the exit of Rahul. "Tell Rahul Gandhi that exit polls this time are only indicating his exit," said BJP leader Kiron Kher.

Union Minister of State for Water Resources Sanjeev Balyan said: "We should give him this opportunity to live in this misunderstanding for one more day. It will be clear by Saturday after the result declaration," he said.

The Congress is also claiming to wrest power in Punjab and retain its hold in Uttarakhand and Manipur. The election is also important for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is hoping for success in its maiden outing in Assembly elections outside Delhi and has put up a spirited fight in Punjab and Goa.

Modi and Rahul have addressed 23 rallies in 30 days. Both held two roadshows. If the Congress fares poorly, questions about his leadership will be resurrected. The Congress has been on a downward slide, losing state after state since its disastrous performance in the 2014 national election, when it could win only 44 Lok Sabha seats, its lowest tally ever.

A good show by the BJP, especially in UP, will be seen as a reaffirmation of Modi's popularity and endorsement of demonetization. It will also be a boost to Shah. The party had been reduced to the margins in state politics for the last 14 years. Shah led an emphatic victory for the party in the last Lok Sabha polls, winning 71 seats out of 80, by smart social engineering in the caste-ridden state.

He addressed non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits, who were feeling ignored by the SP and BSP, respectively. A BJP win in the state polls will boost its strength in the coming Rajya Sabha elections. The results are also crucial for the Presidential polls, scheduled in July. The results will also show that if the BJP has overcome the silent resentment of Jats.

The Jat agitation in neighbouring Haryana had threatened to chip away at the gains the BJP made in 2014. While Jats make up around 8-9 per cent of the state's population, their concentration in key assembly seats in western UP makes them an important voting bloc.

The BJP's entire focus was on PM Modi, his clean image and development. Since Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh is not inclined to return to Lucknow, names of Manoj Sinha, State President Keshav Maurya and Minister of State for Finance and Bareilly MP Santosh Gangwar and even the fiery Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath are doing the rounds as BJP readies to sit on the Lucknow throne.