Crime graph rising steadily under UPA, NDA fared better

Perceived as a weak government by the opposition, Manmohan Singh-led UPA government has earned yet another dubious distinction. As per the latest National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) annual report for 2011, the crime rates under the UPA regimes have increased by 27.60%, which otherwise posted an improvement of 3.54% during the NDA rule.

 

As per a Zee Research Group analysis, the average crime rate is rising by four per cent under the incumbent government. In contrast, it averaged minus one per cent under the NDA. The NCRB data points that the number of cognizable crime cases between 2005 and 2011, which marks the UPA rule, have jumped to 23 lakh 25 thousand 575 in 2011 from 18 lakh 22 thousand 602 in 2005. In comparison, the number of cases dipped from 17 lakh 79 thousand 111 in 1998 to 17 lakh 16 thousand 120 in 2003 during the NDA regime.

 

The UPA can take solace from the fact that under it, the number of counterfeiting cases have come down from 2383 in 2005 to 2307 in 2011. It is a massive reduction of 3.19% as compared to NDA regime’s 51.88%. But the greater cause for concern for the UPA is rising number of cases of robbery and rape which registered a sharp jump of 39.76% and 31.85% respectively. The robbery and rape cases which stood at 17673 and 18359 in 2005 reached 24700 and 24206 in 2011 respectively.

 

Likewise, the cases of dowry deaths, molestation, theft and murder have also increased by 26.98%, 25.73%, 24.78 per cent and 4.85% respectively between 2005 and 2011. The increasing instances of rapes, dowry deaths and molestations, if anything, indicate that crimes against women especially rape and molestation is on the rise in the country.   

 

Barring the cases of counterfeiting, molestation and rape, crime in other categories reported an improvement when NDA was in power. Between 1998 and 2003, cases of robbery, murder, theft and dowry deaths reduced by 25.69%, 15.36%, 14.79 per cent and 10.25% respectively. During the same period, however, cases of counterfeiting, molestation and rape posted a whopping growth of 51.88%, 6.10% and 5.43% respectively.

 

In particular, last two years have been a disaster for the Manmohan Singh government. The crime rate, which stood at just 1 per cent, showing a positive improvement in crime situation in 2009 has experienced a sharp increase of 5% by 2010 and 2011. However, the worst year for ruling alliance was 2006 when the crime rate posted a growth of 6% from 2005.

   

Charts -

Exhibit 1 - Crime during NDA Regime

Regime	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Theft	Counterfeiting	Dowry Deaths	Molestation	Total Cognizable Crime under IPC
NDA (98-03)	217430	95290	122000	1563789	10259	40492	197303	10580582
1998	38653	15031	23565	287792	1353	6917	31046	1779111
2003	32716	15847	17512	245237	2055	6208	32939	1716120
Growth and De- growth	-15.36	5.43	-25.69	-14.79	51.88	-10.25	6.10	-3.54

Exhibit 2 - Crime during UPA Regime

Regime	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Theft	Counterfeiting	Dowry Deaths	Molestation	Total Cognizable Crime under IPC
UPA (2005-11)	230293	147686	146289	2144576	17578	56062	272231	14455698
2005	32719	18359	17673	273111	2383	6787	34175	1822602
2011	34305	24206	24700	340800	2307	8618	42968	2325575
Growth and De-growth (%)	4.85	31.85	39.76	24.78	-3.19	26.98	25.73	27.60

Exhibit 3 - Year on Year crime growth during NDA Regime (1998 -2003)

Year	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Theft	Counterfeiting	Dowry Deaths	Molestation	Total Cognizable Crime under IPC	YoY growth
1998	38653	15031	23565	287792	1353	6917	31046	1779111
1999	37170	15468	21332	271907	1347	6699	32311	1764629	-1%
2000	37399	16496	20926	258588	2299	6995	32940	1771084	0%
2001	36202	16075	19901	252803	1683	6851	34124	1769308	0%
2002	35290	16373	18764	247462	1522	6822	33943	1780330	1%
2003	32716	15847	17512	245237	2055	6208	32939	1716120	-4%
Total	217430	95290	122000	1563789	10259	40492	197303	10580582	(Average) -1%

Exhibit 4 - Year on Year crime growth during UPA Regime (2005 -2011)

Year	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Theft	Counterfeiting	Dowry Deaths	Molestation	Total Cognizable Crime under IPC	YoY growth
2005	32719	18359	17673	273111	2383	6787	34175	1822602
2006	32481	19348	18456	274354	2169	7618	36617	1878293	3%
2007	32318	20737	19136	285043	2204	8093	38734	1989673	6%
2008	32766	21467	20522	316761	2991	8172	40413	2093379	5%
2009	32369	21397	22409	324195	2935	8383	38711	2121345	1%
2010	33335	22172	23393	330312	2589	8391	40613	2224831	5%
2011	34305	24206	24700	340800	2307	8618	42968	2325575	5%
Total	230293	147686	146289	2144576	17578	56062	272231	14455698	(Average) 4%

Exhibit 5 - Key highlights of NCRB Annual Report for 2011