Cities of the Next Decade

What makes some cities grow and some stop? Not all mega cities of the world are fast growing–Paris stagnated long ago because fast trains made commuting easier and people fled to far off suburbs. Detroit went bankrupt because the auto industry migrated to Japan. Recent research findings of agency Oxford Economics predict that in the next 5 years, the top 10 fastest-growing cities (bar chart below ranks them as per expected GDP) will all be from Asia with Delhi, Chennai and Mumbai taking the top three positions.

Interestingly, all but one from the top 10 are from India and China. So the question is will they grow in the same manner? Not, really. These two countries had similar rates of urbanisation in1980. In fact, India was slightly ahead. But 35 years later the gap is wide–with only 30% of India urbanised, versus China's 53% and counting. China’s rapid urbanisation is closely linked to its industrialisation, fueled by export-led growth and the advantage of low cost labour. In the past three decades, about 500 million Chinese have migrated from rural to urban areas, to be near industrial clusters and zones, thereby creating brand new cities. The result is that today a former fishing village in China, called Shenzen, is a shiny twenty-first century, dynamic and vibrant city, next only to Beijing and Shanghai. While China has 14 cities (with a population of more than 5 million), India has 7; but the former's economic disparity is greater. Overall, China’s urban growth has been planned and deliberate, forcefully creating cities out of farmlands or just barren landscapes.

Why the growth pattern of India's cities will differ from China's

It's unlikely that India's growth trajectory will be the same as China's because most urban growth in India  has been and WILL be organic. The reasons?

#1  The difference in our political system, and the process of displacing people and settlements to make way for new cities.

#2 The gap between our rural and urban wages; it’s nowhere as wide as China's.

#3 The manufacturing sector, strongly linked to urbanisation, is a much smaller part of India's economy. So there aren't enough jobs to lure rural folk.

#4 Various land-use laws and large swathes of land unavailable for development, make land and housing prices astronomically high. Furthermore, the scarcity and unaffordability of housing in cities is acute and has led to a proliferation of slums, which inhibits growth of cities.

#5  Our lack of funding for city infrastructure: we get a Sea Link bridge or a metro rail only if the central or state government chips in. Hence, it will be several decades before India crosses 50% urbanisation.

Will the metros continue to lead?

Despite the above mentioned obstacles, Indian cities are growing and our six largest metros will continue to lead. By 2025, they will collectively hold, possibly more than 100 million people. This is because cities are magnets for both job seekers and job creators. And as central and state funds pour into infrastructure like metro rails, cross harbor bridges, new airports, sky-high buildings and office complexes atop railway stations, the optimum population size of the greater metropolis could be 40 million, which is much larger than any city, ever envisaged in the West.

Emerging cities to watch out for

Pune, Ahmedabad, Coimbatore, Visakhapatnam, Surat, Vadodara, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ludhiana, Bhubaneswar and Nagpur will be the other fast-growing cities of India. All of these are characterised by major transportation projects, new educational institutions, government offices and commercial complexes. As land acquisition for industrial townships has been made easier around the DMIC (Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor) with enabling legislation, industrial townships are likely to come up; like Jamshedpur, these may eventually morph into large cities. In Andhra Pradesh, a brand new capital city, Amaravati, is coming up. It will be built from scratch and like Chandigarh and Navi Mumbai, it’s going to be a rare case  of a brand new city built in independent India.

Finally, India already has large urban agglomerations, classified as rural but ‘census towns’. Almost 55 million Indians reside in these towns, which are technically still governed by panchayats. But since they have mushroomed near large cities, they are for all practical purposes, urban areas, though without the city governance structure or infrastructure. Many of these census towns will either transform into modern cities or get absorbed into them. Some may even become bedroom communities serving the large metro workforce thanks to high-speed transit connectivity to the main city.

The new face of Indian cities

In the coming years, we are likely to see new urban practices such as: more water recycling and segregation of non-potable water for other uses; conversion of waste to electricity or compost; more car pools and radio taxis; solar installations everywhere; free Wi-Fi in many parts; e-kiosks for government services;  and multiple usage of government school classrooms.A decade may not seem all that long in the life of a city, but rapid changes in digital technology (4G, CCTV, etc.), transportation models (taxi aggregators), work patterns (flexi time, multiple part-time jobs, self employment trends), education (multiple entry and exit points into college or vocational education), will mean that city life will change drastically. On top of that, with the overlay of mega trends–such as greater women’s participation in the workforce, more ‘green’ awareness and lifestyle, and taller buildings–city life will change beyond recognition. So tighten your seat belts. Oh, is that your pizza being delivered by a drone?