Chhattisgarh's new poll route

Do the key statistics of winners in the previous election help the vanquished in charting out their strategies to be able to turn the tables? If so, the Congress stands a chance of toppling the BJP applecart in Chhattisgarh. On paper, that is!

The most important figure that Congress leaders in Chhattisgarh point out to everyone these days is the 0.75 per cent wafer thin margin of vote share between the winners and losers during the 2013 state Assembly polls, when the BJP had romped home to score a hattrick. And how many votes separated the traditional rivals? Just about 97,574 votes across 90 constituencies — a small margin of about 1,084 votes in each segment. In terms of seats, however, it translated into BJP's 49 and Congress 39 as Dr Raman Singh walked past them wearing the glittering throne all over again.

The euphoria over statistical details ends here for the Congress. The problem now is the entry of a third force that has kept guessing both the BJP and Congress; which inturn makes the the slender margin of last election of no meaning for the Congress.

Known for its decades old two-party political system unlike that of Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh is for the first time witnessing a three-cornered fight with ever ambitious IAS-turned politician Ajit Jogi adding the third dimension taking the BSP and CPI along. The three-party alliance of Janata Chhattisgarh Congress (JCC), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Communist Party of India (CPI) is the most interesting aspect of this month's election to the 90-seat Assembly, as of now.

Jogi's new outfit is contesting about 55 seats and the BSP in 33 seats. Both the parties have adjusted CPI in a few seats in south Chhattisgarh where Left wing extremists dominate, and thus Communist ideology stands a chance of giving a semblance of a fight to BJP and Congress, or so Jogi believes.

The first phase of polling on November 12 will see 18 Assembly seats going to polls in the southern part of the state with close to 200 candidates in the fray. Most of these seats fall in the tribal-dominated belt which is highly vulnerable due to Naxalite activities that persistently challenge the patience of police and people alike.

Keshkal, Kondagaon, Bastar, Narayanpur, Bijapur, Antagadh, Chitrakot, Jagdalpur, Dnatewada, Kahiragarh, and Rajnandgaon are the main constituencies that go to polls in next 10 days. It is considered to be a BJP bastion, as most of these seats were bagged by the BJP last time round.

But all eyes are focussed on Rajnandgaon where Congress has pitted former BJP MP Ms Karuna Shukla — niece of late prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Rajnandgaon, part of an erstwhile princely state of Khairagad, has been the pocket borough of CM Singh but Congress hoped that Shukla would pin the CM down at one place so he can not canvass elsewhere. But Singh is seen campaigning all over the state with his son, Abhishek Singh, the local Member of Parliament, holding the fort for the father. Rajnandgaon district borders on Maharashtra's Gadchiroli region, dominated by Naxals but the district headquarters of CM's constituency is rather insulated from Maoists.

Shukla, an MP from Janjgir in the 14th Lok Sabha, was also the national president of the BJP's women's wing but her party treated her badly. Soon after Vajpayee's death, she slammed BJP top leadership for " neglecting the former PM when he was unwell but used his demise to drum up support for party cadres and utilising the sympathy wave the swept across the country ". According to a local businessman, Congress workers and voters alike are not accepting her much being an outsider and that is an indication of the final outcome here.

Although the Congress took more time to announce all its tickets, other parties have fielded their candidates and electioneering is picking up across all 90 seats. The BJP in its effort to retain power and neutralise anti-incumbency factor, has denied ticket to 14 sitting MLAs but no important minister was dropped despite corruption charges against some of them.

Senior Minister Brij Mohan Agarwal is unruffled with the so called challenge from the Congress and Jogi-led alliance. "Our national president Amitji ( Shah) has given us target of 65 seats and we are working towards achieving that. BJP is winning the election with a record number of seats because we have turned Chhattisgarh around," Agarwal told DNA, adding that they have multiple strategies in place with a massive force of dedicated workers.

What is curious about these elections is that both the Congress and BJP are hoping that the new front would benefit them more than their main rival in some way or the other. Ruling BJP feels Jogi, the first first chief minister of Chhattisgarh, would dent the Congress vote bank, thanks to his following in his erstwhile party. Congress leaders, on the other hand, feel with his leaving the party the constant fear of internal sabotage is gone and that the party stands more united. "Jogi used to conspire against his own party, put one leader against another and generally make everyone insecure, but that phase is over with the formation of his own party," commentated a Congress leader who also said, "We are much more at peace with ourselves now." They say Jogi will take time to settle down with his new party and symbol.

Jogi, 72, and moving always in a wheel chair as his lower limbs do not function following a severe car accident in 2004, has finally decided to contest the election from Marwahi in Bilaspur district. His wife Renu Jogi, a trained medicine doctor, until recently in the Congress, joined his husband's party three days ago and is contesting from Kota, while his daughter-in-law Richa Jogi has been drafted into the BSP to fight from Akaltara seat in Janjgir, the belt where scheduled castes have dominant presence. The only person from his family not contesting these election is son Amit who was jailed by CBI for a murder conspiracy.

While the former chief minister is aiming to become a king-maker by winning about 10 seats with BSP's support, Congress state chief Bhupesh Baghel likes to keep the record straight. He told media that the BSP had never ever won more than two seats in the state and in 2013 they won only one seat, just like in 2008. What Congress is trying to indicate is that Jogi-Mayawati combine is no threat to them at all. Baghel says people want change in Chhattisgarh as they are fed up with the ruling BJP.

There are only 10 seats reserved for scheduled castes and the Bahujan Samaj Party's vote share is as meagre as 4 per cent which too is spread over thinly in many constituencies. Of these 10 seats, BJP had won nine last time round. Ravi Bhoi, a senior journalist from Raipur, says that the new grouping may not be able to swing the election in either side. The fight is straight between Congress and BJP, with the latter having much better organisational network and hence an edge.

A number of pre-poll surveys have also given (very) slender lead to BJP and political analysts concede that Raman Singh is indeed up against a strong anti-incumbency undercurrent. If he manages the election well, what with money bags supporting him, he may make another history.

Yet, many feel that Jogi, despite his health issues, may queer the pitch for BJP if he wins 10-12 seats, mainly denting Congress vote bank. And BJP at the same time is worried about poaching of its SC supporters by Mayawati's fiery speeches. She held a well attended public rally in Bilaspur last month to kick start BSP's campaign. For Jogi this is do or die moment.