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Assam Elections 2016: Can Sarbananda Sonowal break the Tarun Gogoi spell?

The entire campaign is synchronised, a BJP leader said tapping on the ipad for the radio jingles and songs tuned to the state's folk music.

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In a BJP leader's chamber at the party headquarters, the Assam campaign echoes faintly -- from the Jhumur nach music to the tribal northeastern attire hanging in a corner and slogans revolving around chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal.

The entire campaign is synchronised, a BJP leader said tapping on the ipad for the radio jingles and songs tuned to the state's folk music.

Its on Sonowal, who wearing a red and white Assamese Gamusa is hopping from place to place in a chopper dedicated to him, that the party is heavily banking on to take on Congress's three-term chief minister Tarun Gogoi.

Pitching 53-year-old Sonowal's personality -- young and fresh face -- against the Congress old war horse, the BJP is hoping to connect with the youth. There are 6.75 lakh first time voters in the state where 31 per cent of the voters are below 30.

Unlike in other states where elections have been held since the Modi regime took over in Delhi, the BJP's strategy in Assam spins around local personalities -- Sonowal, who began as a student leader, and Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Congress leader who has switched sides. This was reflected even in speeches of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said there there is only one "anand (happiness)" in Assam and he was Sarbananda, a line which has been used in party jingles and slogans. In the BJP's aggressive campaign in the state through TV jingles, radio spots and posters, three faces -- Modi, Sonowal and Himanta are prominent. The party, with the help of Himanta, known to be a magician in managing polls, is making an aggressive push on the ground. This may have not gone down all too well with former BJP leaders, especially former state party president Siddarth Bhattacharya. It seems, however, to have an effect on some voters who are looking for change. 'Poriborton' is a word that many seem to have been taken in by.

In another deviation from its past tactical trends, the BJP is treading cautiously in attacking opposition leaders in the state. The party is trying to keep the discourse confined to development issues -- village infrastructure, floods, education, jobs for youth, addressing tea garden workers' problems and fallout of Bangladeshi migrants.

Sonowal too has been subtle in his attack on Gogoi. While admitting that he is a "bhoomiputra" (son of the soil), the BJP leader took digs at Congress saying that the state government would be dictated by the party high command in Delhi.

The BJP has fielded its top leaders to campaign in the state. Besides the PM, Union ministers Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Nitin Gadkari and Smriti Irani besides party president Amit Shah have held rallies in the state, while finance minister Arun Jaitley released the vision document. From BJP headquarters, state prabhari Ram Madhav has been key interlocutor in talks with AGP, while the campaign is being coordinated by party general secretary Arun Singh.

Assam is also the only one of the five states heading for elections which the BJP has hopes of capturing. A victory in Assam, where the party won seven (equivalent to 69 assembly seats) of 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, would give it a boost after humiliating defeats in Bihar and Delhi. The BJP's sweep in Bihar and Delhi in general elections had not reflected in the assembly polls, but in Assam the party, which has tied up with AGP, is hoping to retain the mood of 2014.

Yet, as the BJP counts its advantages, it is trying to deal with the challenges. While hoping to consolidate the Hindu vote in its favour, it has made a distinction between the Bangladeshi Muslims and the Assamese Muslims.

One of the biggest tests for the party could be the minority vote in a state with a 34.2 per cent Muslim population. The BJP is hoping that the Muslim vote would get divided between Congress and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

The BJP has been attacking the Gogoi regime over corruption, but has inducted Himanta, who was a powerful minister in his Government.

—(With inputs from Amrita Madukalya)
 

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