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AAP 'wave' was a complete myth: 6 things we learned from the state election results

Some hard lessons we learnt during these assembly elections.

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State Assembly Elections 2017
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Democracy, despite its numerous flaws, remains a beautiful exercise. You can say whatever you want in plush television studios, or in your carefully crafted 1000-word columns, but voters will tell you exactly what they think when election season comes along. As five states gave their verdict, here are some important things we learned this after the assembly elections.

Vote-counting isn’t the end of the electoral process

‘Horse-trading’ or the art of getting other factions to support you is an old trick in the republic, and we saw that again as BJP seems to have pulled another fast one on Congress in Goa and Manipur. BJP president Amit Shah, a man who doesn’t make proclamations lightly, had said after the election results that BJP would form four out of five governments. While they got a huge mandate in UP and Uttarakhand, a unique mix of snatching rebel MLAs seems to have given them enough legroom to form governments in Goa and Manipur. With clever machinations from the likes of Himanta Biswa Sarma, Ram Madhav and Nitin Gadkari, BJP edged ahead of Congress.  

It speaks much about the grand old party’s lethargy that they couldn’t decide on a leader or get the necessary support. As for the ‘murder of democracy’ criticism, Congress is hardly a spring chicken when it comes to finding different ways to get ahead when they finish behind the single largest-majority party. 

Also read:

BJP to form government in Manipur

Why Parrikar is back as Goa CM

 

Modi is India’s tallest leader

NC leader Omar Abdullah and Congress’ P Chidambaram got into trouble for stating that PM Modi was undoubtedly India’s most dominant leader. That the Congress would rather chastise its leaders and allies instead of accepting the reality shows that they continue to live in delusion. Since he came to power in 2014, PM Modi has set the agenda and everything other parties do, is a reaction to his actions. Whether it’s criticising demonetization or creating alliances to push-back against the saffron wave, almost every party’s reaction seems to be to counter BJP's moves. Speaking at a victory rally at the BJP headquarters, PM Modi said the vote was one for a new India. The "new India" he said, would empower the poor and lift the burden of the middle class and what went unsaid, what many firmly believe, is that Modi is the leader who can lead the nation to this new India.

Also Read: 

Narendra Modi - master of all he surveys

How Modi-Shah combine swept UP

 

The media really doesn’t seem to have the right end of the stick

The election results smashed with a sledgehammer some of the more popular media myths that had been promulgated in the last couple of years. The poor of India didn’t punish Narendra Modi for demonetization. Dalits were not hostile to BJP, which they seemingly don’t see as an upper-caste party for Hindus. Similarly, AAP which we were led to believe is the default ‘secular’ alternative to the Congress, were left complaining about EVM-tampering. On a similar note, Irom Sharmila’s humbling defeat in Manipur suggested that the people of the state have bigger worries than repealing AFSPA. And last but not the least, UP is certainly not as enamoured by the SP-Cong alliance as projected. 

Also Read: 7 popular media narratives that were punctured

Congress is not down and out but needs change

While the Congress might have got undone by the BJP’s last-minute skullduggery in Goa and Manipur and lost quite dismally in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, they shouldn’t’ be too downcast. Because in Amarinder’s smashing victory in Punjab lies the seeds of rejuvenation for the party.

The Congress gave ‘Punjab Da Captain’ Amarinder Singh a free hand, who also pushed out election whiz kid Prashant Kishor and the results are there for all to see. The Captain destroyed the notion that AAP would get the Badals’ anti-incumbency votes and it was a masterstroke to get Sidhu into the mix, given his popularity in the state. Amarinder’s victory shows the way forward for Congress but the post-election inertia in Manipur and Goa suggests that the leadership needs a shake-up. 

The eternal man-child Rahul Gandhi went AWOL after the chastening defeat, emerging three days later to give soundbites about how Congress’ ideology is against ‘horse-trading’. That he wasn't around to speak along with ally Akhilesh after the defeat shows just how much he leads from the front. 

On the other hand, you have their digital in-charge saying that ‘spending time with Rahul’s dog is better than listening to Himanta Biswa Sarma’. The kind of elitist arrogance, when Sarma, a former Congress leader, is helping turn the North-East saffron, shows the dire need for a sea change. Because, Shah and Modi, the ruthless duo are coming for everything and the Congress in its current state look ill-equipped to stop them.

 

Also read

How the dynasty is killing Congress

5 reasons why Congress won in Punjab

 

AAP was building castles in thin air 

This was supposed to be the election where the Aam Aadmi Party was supposed to finally come into its own. An AAP wave was coming in Punjab and maybe Goa, we were assured, but at the end of the day, the defeat was as chastening as the one they faced in the Lok Sabha elections 2014.

In Goa, they lost their deposits in 38 out of the 39 seats they contested. In Punjab, where an AAP spokesman had bragged they’d get more than 80 seats, they ended up with only 20, losing deposits in over two dozen seats. They even got a lesser vote share than SAD-BJP combine, despite the massive anti-incumbency.  

Kejriwal and AAP, seem to be living in their own delusional world, believing the media panellists, internal surveys and social media hashtags about their own greatness. The worst part was Kejriwal’s response, who instead of introspecting, looked to shift the blame to EVM tampering, even wondering why those who ‘tampered’ EVMs didn’t do so in Bihar and Delhi! The party that had once promised to change Indian politics, has started to look like a caricature. The worst part is that there seems to be no one left to tell the muffler-clad emperor that he’s not wearing any clothes.

Read: Will AAP learn its lessons?

EVM-tampering is the new 'dog ate my homework'

If one thought that the chastening defeat would lead to some introspection among politicians in a democracy, the only thing we got was blaming the election process. It started with BSP supremo Mayawati, who was aghast at the BJP’s stunning victory in UP, wondering how the BJP was getting votes in ‘Muslim-majority constituencies’.

Her claims were strongly rebuked by the Election Commission, but she wasn’t the only one. Members of SP, Congress and Uttarakhand CM Harish Rawat also made similar noises, but none of  them generated 

The SP and Congress combine, while exchanging barbs on what had caused their loss also asked for an investigation, but the most masterful conspiracy theory was put forward by Kejriwal. 

The Delhi CM pulled out a conspiracy theory in which he claimed that 25-30% of AAP’s votes were ‘transferred’ to SAD-BJP, so that Congress would win the election! He went on to cite media reports and tweets by journos (including one he had termed ‘dalal in the past) about a perceived AAP wave, which never materialised. The icing on the cake was however when he wondered why the EVMs weren’t tampered in Delhi and Bihar, suggesting that the tampering only took place when the BJP or its allies won. If Kejriwal's suggestions are to be taken seriously, it seems like EVMs are sentient beings with higher levels of intelligence than AAP leaders, which to be fair, isn't saying much! 

 

In fact, if EVM tampering really was that easy, one wonders why the BJP didn’t do so in Goa and Manipur, instead of putting in all the hard work to cobble together post-poll alliances. The election caravan will carry on and soon it will be the turn of MCD polls in April and Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh in the end of the year.  Can AAP redeem itself in Gujarat? Or will the BJP's juggernaut continue will be the big focal point of attention. All parties will try to learn lessons from this round of polls and better their strategies. But blaming EVMs for debacle is unlikely to be one of them! 

 

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