BJP is expected to emerge as the biggest party from Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha Election with 37-40 seats followed by Mayawati-led BSP at 14-17 seats. The ruling Samajwadi Party, still suffering from aftermath of Muzaffarnagar Riots and poor governance, would a poor third with 8-11 seats. Indian National Congress which had done comparatively well in the last Lok Sabha Elections is expected to get only around 9 seats. A pre-poll Lok Sabha survey conducted by TALEEM Research Foundation for Zee News shows UP playing a big role in Narendra Modi’s dream to become the next Prime Minister.
And it is not just UP, BJP is expected to improve its tally in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Even in West Bengal, where its former ally Trinamool Congress is in power, it is expected to win three to five seats. All these six states – UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, are particularly interesting and important due to the presence of non-Congress, non-BJP parties. Post verdict on 16 May, these parties are expected to play key role in deciding whether Narendra Modi’s dream of becoming the second BJP Prime Minister would come true or not.
TALEEM-Zee News survey shows these parties might not be so powerful as expected. In West Bengal, TMC is expected to win only 8-10 seats out of 42 seats while its bête noire CPM is expected to win only 3-5 seats. A majority of those participating in the survey are undecided about their choice. In Tamil Nadu the survey shows Jayalalitha’s AIADMK at 8 to 10 seats while DMK at 7 to 9 seats. BJP is expected to do much better than last time with 7 to 9 seats. This finding is interesting in the background of growing bonhomie between Jayalalitha and Mamata Banerjee.
Seat Projection by Region and Parties in six largest states
|
Parties
|
UP
|
Bihar
|
Maharashtra
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Tamil Nadu
|
West Bengal
|
Total (6 States)
|
|
BJP
|
37-40
|
19-21
|
15-18
|
7-10
|
7-9
|
3-5
|
88-103
|
|
BJP Alliance Parties
|
-
|
1-2
|
2-4
|
12-15
|
-
|
-
|
15-21
|
|
INC
|
7-9
|
3-4
|
10-12
|
6-8
|
5-7
|
3-4
|
34-44
|
|
INC Alliance Parties
|
-
|
3-5
|
4-6
|
2-3
|
-
|
-
|
9-14
|
|
Third Front and Regional parties
|
23-30
|
2-4
|
2-4
|
6-8
|
20-25
|
11-15
|
64-86
|
|
Undecided
|
5-8
|
7-9
|
8-11
|
3-5
|
2-4
|
20-23
|
45-60
|
|
Total Projected Seats
|
80
|
40
|
48
|
42
|
39
|
42
|
291
|
Seat Projection for major Regional Parties in six largest states
|
Regional parties
|
UP
|
Bihar
|
Maharashtra
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Tamil Nadu
|
West Bengal
|
|
SP
|
8-11
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
BSP
|
14-17
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
JD (U)
|
-
|
2-4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
YSRCP
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
6-8
|
-
|
-
|
|
DMK
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
7-9
|
-
|
|
AIDMK
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
8-10
|
-
|
|
TMC
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
8-10
|
|
CPI(M)
|
-
|
-
|
1-2
|
-
|
-
|
3-5
|
|
Other party
|
1-2
|
-
|
1-2
|
-
|
5-6
|
-
|
|
Total Projected Seats
|
23-30
|
2-4
|
2-4
|
6-8
|
20-25
|
11-15
|
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