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BJP's Bihar math may give Ram Vilas Paswan Rajya Sabha berth

BJP and JD(U) to get 17 seats each while LJP gets 6; BJP has to give up 5 of its current seats for alliance

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Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan and Amit Shah on Sunday
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The impasse over seat-sharing in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) finally came to an end, with the BJP agreeing to a formula with allies LJP and JD(U). Making the announcement on Sunday, party president Amit Shah said BJP and JD(U) will contest 17 seats each in Bihar, while the LJP will get six. In addition, LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan may also get a Rajya Sabha berth.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, then in an alliance with LJP and RLSP, won 22 seats on its own. The current seat-sharing deal means it now has to give up five of the seats it currently holds. The upper castes account for 17 per cent of the population and have traditionally been BJP voters. Adding to this is the upper crust of the Dalits, accounting for 9 per cent of the population, and have traditionally been LJP supporters. The Kurmis have supported Nitish Kumar, and account for 4 per cent of the population, taking the overall tally to 30 per cent.

While the BJP hasn't named the seats it will give up, it's expected that rebel MPs Shatrughan Sinha and Kirti Azad will be dropped. Sources in the BJP said that it's unlikely that former Union minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy, who was appointed as a national spokesperson a day ago, will get a ticket. Adding to the list is Begusarai MP Bhola Singh, who passed away in October this year.

The seat-sharing formula was announced after the Congress got into a coalition in the state with former NDA ally RLSP, Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, Sharad Yadav's LJD and Jitan Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha. The seat-sharing for the alliance hasn't been announced, but the Congress is likely to keep 18-20 seats, leaving 12 for the RJD, three for RLSP, two each for LJD and HAM, and one seat for the CPM.

The BJP has also agreed to give Paswan a Rajya Sabha seat in any of the states where elections are due, with speculations that he may contest from Assam where two seats fall vacant in June, barely days after the Lok Sabha elections conclude.

Sources also said Finance Minister Arun Jaitley emerged as an architect of the alliance, convincing Shah to agree to the Rajya Sabha seat for Paswan. The NDA's alliance in Bihar waded into troubled waters after Paswan's son Chirag tweeted that the BJP is taking too long to decide on the arrangement, and came following uncertain times following the exits of RLSP and Chandrababu Naidu's TDP.

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