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BJP's big win in Uttar Pradesh closes gap for Presidential polls

Will have to wait for Rajya Sabha numbers till next year

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BJP workers celebrate the party’s victory in at the party’s headquarters in New Delhi
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The emphatic victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand has brought the Bharatiya Janata Party closer to win the presidential elections, scheduled in July, when the incumbent President Pranab Mukherjee completes his five-year term. Till the election results were out, the BJP was grappling to find numbers as its tally alongwith allies in the electoral college was at 481,071, below the requisite strength of 549,441 to win in a direct contest. The strength of electoral college that comprises MPs and MLAs across the country is 1,098,882. The NDA strength has now gone up to 537,827 and increase of 56,756 votes in the electoral college.

In the Presidential election, each MLA vote carries a value proportionate to the population of the state as per the 1971 census. The electoral college for the election of the President is defined in the Constitution as the elected members of both Houses of Parliament and the elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of the States. The value of the vote of MLAs varies from State to State. It is lowest in Sikkim (seven) and highest 208 for UP MLA. The last presidential election saw a contest between Pranab Mukherjee and Purno Sangma. The value of the total votes polled was around 10.50 lakh and Mukherjee won 7.13 lakh votes, way ahead of the votes needed for a majority.

The NDA may have gained to win the race for presidential polls, but its minority position in the Rajya Sabha, however, will not change till next year. The biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha from these states that went polls are not slated before April next year.

As the BJP is in power on its own in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Assam and in partnership with other parties in Jammu and Kashmir and Andhra Pradesh, the addition of UP and Uttarakhand puts it in a very comfortable position. Even though, there is still a deficit of 11,615 votes, it is expected to be bridged with the support of AIADMK and other parties.

Sources in the BJP said they would now prefer some one from within the party to be the next President. It may offer the post of the vice-president - falling vacant a month later due to Hamid Ansari completing his second 5-year term - to one of the allies or pick up one from the South or from tribal community. In 2002, the party had elected its former Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat as the vice-president.

Only 10 seats in Rajya Sabha are falling vacant this year and that may increase the BJP's strength to 57 as against the Congress dipping to 58. The first to retire this year towards July end is Goa's Congress member Shantaram Naik who is bound to be replaced by the BJP candidate because of the party succeeding in forming the government. Only nine other seats fall vacant in August -- six in West Bengal and three in Gujarat. Only Trinamul Congress will increase its strength from West Bengal while there may be no difference in the Congress-BJP ratio in Gujarat. Those retiring in Gujarat are Textile Minister Smriti Irani and Dilipbhai Pandya of BJP and Congress President's political secretary Ahmed Patel.

The next biennial election will be in Delhi in January 2018 when the ruling AAP is bound to make its first entry winning all three seats that are now with the Congress, by its General Secretary Janardan Dwivedi, Dr Karan Singh and Parvez Hashmi. From UP, Mayawati, the BSP chief and nine others are due to retire from the Upper House in August 2018. While the BJP will romp home eight seats, the united Opposition can bank in on two seats. Therefore, the BSP will have a very difficult time to re-elect Mayawati as she has just 19 seats.

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