In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the party hopes to convert its larger vote share in the Assembly elections into a repeat of the 2014 state sweep
It was in December last year that the Congress' hopes of reclaiming Madhya Pradesh were reignited when it ended the 15-year uninterrupted term of then chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, the BJP hasn't conceded it to be a foregone conclusion a continues to be confident that it will perform very well in its traditional bastion.
Madhya Pradesh — one of the largest and politically crucial state — will go to polls in four phases in the general elections that are scheduled to begin in April. Here, arch rivals BJP and Congress are in a direct contest and it will be a pitched battle between the two parties — for Congress to retain the momentum it gained in December; for BJP, it is a fight to repeat its near sweep performance from the previous general elections.
WHAT'S AT STAKE?
For Congress, the challenge is mammoth. In the 2014 elections, it managed to win only two of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, a distant second to the BJP sweep that raked in 27 seats. Even in terms of vote share, the BJP was way ahead of the Congress with a difference of nearly 20 per cent votes between them.
So, if the recently-concluded Assembly polls are anything to go by, then the narrow margin of voter distribution could be a cause for worry for the Congress, as even with the help of allies, it barely managed to touch the halfway mark. In fact, despite being voted out of power in the Assembly polls, the BJP ended up with a greater vote share (41 per cent) against the Congress (40.9 per cent) in the state polls.
The state will also be observed closely because of the two key political heavyweights — Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath and his predecessor Shivraj Singh Chouhan — and whether they can pull their respective parties towards revival and electoral consolidation.
CONGRESS' CAMPAIGN
Jitu Patwari, a cabinet minister for Higher Education and Youth Affairs in the Kamal Nath-led state government said that his party and government will go to the people with the message that the Central government had failed to deliver on the big promises made in 2014. Patwari also said that busting the government's ongoing grandstanding on nationalism will also be a priority.
Speaking to DNA, Patwari said, "Prime Minister Modi's failure to deliver on his campaign rhetoric and countless promises that were made during the 2014 general election campaign will be a key issue for us."
Patwari, who is also the working president of Madhya Pradesh Congress committe, added, "Following the Pulwama attack and air strikes, the NDA government is hiding its failures by trying to distract the common man with nationalism."
In the 2018 state elections, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi had campaigned extensively on two issues — rural farmer distress and the alleged Rafale scam. He successful in turning them into a legitimate poll issue, especially after he began his campaign from Mandsaur. It had witnessed the death of six farmers in a police shootout. The police opened fire during a farmer protest against the state government.
BJP'S ELECTORAL PITCH
The BJP has taken heart from its competitive finish in the state assembly elections. Its senior leader and Madhya Pradesh in-charge Vinay Sahasrabuddhe sought to stress that BJP's polled more votes than Congress even in a losing battle. According to him, this indicated that the state's citizens were not disillusioned with the BJP. "In MP, even though Congress formed the government, BJP did not lose. The mandate was equally for the BJP. The mood in the state was not one of celebration, rather it was sombre," Sahasrabuddhe said.
"In the months since they formed a government, they have not been as successful in fulfilling their promises on farm loan waiver or unemployment dole. So there is a sense among the people that they are being cheated," he added.
However, Sahasrabuddhe admitted that state's battle poses a challenge to his party. "Our consideration, our understanding and belief is that the poor performance of the state government, the good performance of central government and some kind of a sense of repentance for having unseated Shivraj Singh Chouhan, all these three factors are going to contribute heavily to tilt the balance in favour of the BJP," he said.
ELECTORAL ISSUES
In the assembly elections, one of the biggest issues which is said to have given a fillip to the Congress party not just in Madhya Pradesh but also in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh was rural distress. In fact, hours after being sworn in as the new chief minister, the first decision that Nath took was clearing the file related to farm loan waiver in line with party's campaign promise.
Political leaders and experts feel that farm and rural distress could continue to be a key issue in the ongoing polls along with unemployment, access to services and beneficiary schemes of the union government.
Analysts said that the loopholes and issues on the poor implementation of Forest Rights Act, 2006, could also become a talking point for Congress. After a recent Supreme Court order, directing state governments to evict 'encroachers' from forest land, Rahul Gandhi asked all Congress Chief Ministers, including Kamal Nath, to file a review petition against the order.
The ruling BJP's campaign, meanwhile, is being led by Modi and the party is all set to showcase the policy work done by the union government particularly recently announced PM KISAN or direct cash transfer to farmers, subsidized gas cylinders through Ujjwala, opening of Jan Dhan accounts, housing and electricity through Saubhagya.
Key Faces
- Kamal Nath: The sitting CM, veteran Congress leader will have to lead the charge for Congress party. Will have to wrest back the Lok Sabha seats from BJP
- Jyotiraditya Scindia: The former union minister was his party’s campaign chief in the 2018 state elections. He will be one of the star campaigners
- Digvijay Singh: Even though he has lesser direct control, he can make a dent against the BJP by mobilizing his loyal followers and MLAs
- Shivraj Singh Chouhan: The three-term CM still holds sway over the electorate and BJP will bank on his mass connect
- Sumitra Mahajan: The former LS speaker and seven-time MP from Indore will be a crucial campaigner for BJP
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WHAT'S AT STAKE?
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