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BJP edges past Cong, but will have to wait for RS majority

The Upper House has been a pain in the beck for the Modi government over past three years, with many of its legislation getting stuck for want of numbers

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Despite the setback in Gujarat Rajya Sabha elections, losing one seat to Congress' Ahmed Patel by a whisker, the BJP, for the first time, has emerged as the single largest party in the 245-member Upper House with 58 members. The Congress strength has come down to 57 from 65 it held three years ago.

While the ruling combination will get support of at least eight JD(U) MPs out of its total 10 to augment numbers, the BJP on its own will enjoy majority in the House only in April 2018, when 67 Rajya Sabha seats in different states will go to polls. The Upper House has been a pain in the beck for the Modi government over past three years, with many of its legislation getting stuck for want of numbers.

According to BJP leaders, the Rajya Sabha has been a stumbling block in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's legislative agenda. "A majority in both the Houses will help the PM bring about major policy changes a year before the 2019 general elections," a senior party leader said. The government was embarrassed last week when the Opposition forced changes in a bill that sought to amend the Constitution and so needed the support of two-thirds of the members present. The government was also hit by the absence of its 30 MPs when the vote was held.

Most of the states where seats are getting vacant are in BJP-ruled states of UP, Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. With the help of JD(U), the current strength of the NDA has increased to 86. There is speculation of AIADMK, which has 13 RS members, too joining the NDA fold. If that happens, the NDA's strength will go up to 99. However, for smooth passage of bills, the ruling combination needs support of 123 members. Over the past three years, since the BJP came to power, the composition of states have changed, with the Congress and other Opposition parties losing power in Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and UP. Those retiring from the Rajya Sabha in April next year also include three nominated members — Rekha, Sachin Tendulkar and Anu Aga. This will further swell numbers of treasury benches as they will nominate members of their choice.

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who is also the Leader of the House in the Rajya Sabha, said the BJP becoming the Number 1 party is a "natural consequence of our support base increasing". "We are in power in most states and since the Rajya Sabha is a council of the states, the strength of the BJP has to be reflected," he said. The minister was confident that his party's "base will increase in every election". While a majority in the Upper House would greatly strengthen the government's ability to pass bills, but will also face pressure from hard-line Hindutva outfits to push core ideological issues, such as Uniform Civil Code, eliminating Article 370, and legislation to build Ram Temple at Ayodhya.

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