The Avengers crossover meme wasn’t there in 2015, or else PDP-BJP alliance would easily fit into it. Two political parties with ideologies as different as chalk and cheese came together, after a fractured mandate reflected the greatly fragmented polity of Jammu and Kashmir.
It was dubbed as the unity of North and South Pole by former CM Mufti Saeed. While many believed it was the perfect healing touch needed by bringing the majority Muslims and minority Hindus in the state together, others assumed it would be a disaster due to disoriented policies.
Honestly, it was neither of the two, the alliance worked in phases when terrorists were clinically tracked down and eliminated, big-ticket development projects rolled in with PM Modi himself making multiple visit to the Valley.
However, it stuttered at fundamental levels, when it was about winning the trust of disgruntled youth to wean them away from militancy, in bringing people of Jammu and Kashmir closer. As the reactions to Kathua rape-and-murder case showed, the chalice of hate was probably too much for any sanity to exist any way.
But honestly, all of these are sideshow, and nothing really explains why BJP pulled the plug on an alliance which it formed after months of hectic parleys.
It was a tad ironic to see Ram Madhav announcing the decision - like a priest announcing the annulment of a marriage which he had ordained in the first place. So, what made BJP pull the trigger, to sacrifice a state, weeks after narrowly losing out on winning Karnataka, despite emerging as the single largest party?
Nothing, but cold calculations have determined the move which clearly has the stamp of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi.
With the opposition closing ranks, the BJP needs to fire up its base, ensure that the dedicated voters turn up, if the party hopes to do an encore of 2014.
The base for a long time – not just restricted to Jammu – was unhappy with BJP’s alliance with PDP.
It gave no leverage point to BJP except just ticking a box in their state count and bragging rights of forming its first-ever government in J&K albeit as a junior ally.
But the price was a tad too much, particularly in an election year. The party had to put shelving Article 370 on the backburner, it had to agree to amnesty for first-time stone pelters, had to significantly dial down anti-terror operations in Valley by freezing cordon-and-search operations on Mehbooba Mufti’s behest.
It ran the risk of being branded as weak on terror, not faithful to its core issues in front of its supporters. PDP insisting on extending the Ramzan ceasefire was the proverbial last straw as the Bukhari assassination had put the government in a spot of bother. Headline management doesn’t get easy when a decorated journalist gets killed in public glare.
By making a clean break from PDP, BJP can now crank-up the rhetoric on Pakistan, Kashmir, about Kashmiri Pandits’ long exile from their homes and in general play its nationalistic card to the hilt.
Essentially, it is a get-out-of-jail card, at a time when the party senses vulnerability on multiple fronts across the nation, resetting the Kashmir agenda is likely to help BJP etch out a new narrative of willing to sacrifice political power in a state for sake of India. Tough on terror with unflinching dedication works perfectly as political messaging.
On the flipside, the party runs the risk of spooking current allies and scaring away potential ones with this high-handed move.
It has just given legitimacy to the accusation of hubris which has been levelled against them by the likes of Chandrababu Naidu and Uddhav Thackeray. It might just give a certain Mr Nitish Kumar some fresh fodder chew upon, pun intended.
In the high-stakes game of politics, BJP has played a risky gamble. But has it erred by showing its hands too early, or this was perfectly timed with united opposition gradually gaining momentum?
Political chameleons will continue their dealings, but for the ordinary Kashmiris there is unlikely to be any pot of gold at the end of the rainbow despite PM Modi's calls for Insaniyat, Kashmiriyat and Jamhooriat.
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