For TMC, it all started in Nandigram. A fatal brainfade by the Bengal police leading to death of 14 innocent protestors giving TMC a window to barge in and change the firmament of Red Bengal. Nandigram is located in East Midnapore district. Incidentally, Kanthi Dakshin is also in East Midnapore, a former CPI(M) stronghold now the fiefdom of TMC. In a delicious twist of fate, then CPI(M) strongman Lakshman Seth is now part of BJP. And the result of the bypolls is a clear indication that Lakshman Seth effect has clearly worked for the saffron unit, to galvanise the voters.
BJP in 2016, got only 8.76% vote in Kanthi Dakshin. They have increased it to a stunning 31% in this election. In a classic four-cornered poll, that should have been enough to win. But thanks to complete collapse of the Left and Congress votes, TMC with an overwhelming 55.90% vote managed to increase its victory margin from last time.
Now, the reaction from Congress and Left have been along expected lines. Both have alleged tacit understanding between BJP and TMC. The claim clearly doesn't hold up as BJP is the one, which has politically attacked TMC the most. The anti-TMC voters have also reposed their faith on BJP in this by-election. In the upcoming few months, several civic elections is scheduled to take place. It will be interesting if BJP can hold on to this trend and emerge as the main opposition party in Bengal.
The Left has long been in denial that TMC workers are working for BJP and RSS. But its vote-share and cadre base is getting depleted in broad daylight and there is absolutely no effort to stem the rot. It's time for the Left to get out of their hallowed ideological echo chambers and reach out to people which some alternative policy documents. Ad-hominem opposition of Mamata will not work, especially at a time when she is promoting several pro-poor schemes.
Bengal Congress is still in a limbo, with no idea whether it will align with Left in the future or go alone. Adhir Chowdhury is an industrious leader but has been surprisingly inept in generating any traction for the party.
As for Mamata, BJP's rise should make her wary. As of today, they are bleeding the opposition ranks, but TMC support base is hardly water-tight. BJP has powerfully pitched the issue of lack of protection given to Hindus, and it has touched a chord with the masses. The aggressive Hindutva in display during Ram Navami and the several low level skirmishes in different parts of the state has indicated a hardening of polity. If BJP can prop one or two popular leaders from Bengal, who can attract the imagination of the common masses, the party may see drastic improvement in their fortunes.
Didi has tried to take back the narrative saying BJP doesn't have any exclusive rights on Hinduism. Whether her course correction stops BJP in tracks will be known in future. Currently in Bengal, both TMC and BJP are increasing their vote shares. Soon one party will reach its inflection point and their slide will begin. The game is truly on.
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 "Mamata Banerjee and BJP state unit president Dilip Ghosh")
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