Poll possibility: Analysts factor in organisational strength, tactic to quell rebellion
With less than 48 hours before poll campaigns come to an end in Madhya Pradesh, emerging trends suggest that the BJP is in a position of advantage. The party, which has brought an insider-outsider narrative into play, has greater organisational strength due to a 15 years stint in office.
Speaking at election meetings, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has repeatedly targeted Congress frontline leaders over their long absences from the state. Apart from taking the sting off the anti-incumbency campaign run by the Congress, it also helped to build his image as a son-of-the-soil.
While initial psephological trends pointed towards a resurgence of the Congress and prospects of a closely fought contest, analysts are now factoring in organisational strength and rebellion within party ranks to understand the direction politics in the state will take in the near future.
Maintaining that the party with greater organisational strength and the resultant ability to quell inner party rebellion will be at an advantage when the contest moves to dusty electoral battlefields on November 28, they add that the ongoing poll season is one of the quietest and the most difficult to predict in recent memory.
The BJP and its frontal organisations have considerable strength as compared to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh where the Grand Old Party is running a hearty campaign to return to power after a decade-and a-half-long gap.
Congress insiders lament that the introduction of elections in Congress frontal organisations — Youth Congress and National Students Union of India — in 2008, and the absence of the party from power for 15 years in the state, have resulted in a substantial weakening of the organisation.
In the run-up to the assembly elections both the BJP and Congress were hit by significant rebellion, a worrying trend for the arch-rivals as localised inner-party threats could easily alter poll-equations in a close electoral contest.
Several rebels, who quit their respective parties in the aftermath of ticket distribution, are in the poll-fray as nominees of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) who are attempting to resurrect dwindling electoral fortunes in this largely bipolar state.
Amid indications of both the ruling BJP and challenger Congress returning to strategy boards to reassess voting day plans after campaigning concludes on November 26, poll watchers are not unanimous about the outcome, with most saying the wind is in favour of the BJP.
FOR & AGAINST
- While the BJP has a strong organisational presence, it is also facing an anti-incumbency factor after 15 years of rule in the state.
- The Congress used the anti-incumbency vibe against the BJP for its good, but has also faced criticism for long absence of leaders from the poll-bound state.
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