From demonetization to AAP wave: 7 media narratives that were punctured by state election results

Democracy is not only a reality check for all netas, but also for media and civil society, who are often accused of working in a bubble, cut off from what people are 'really' thinking. It isn’t strictly an Indian phenomenon obviously. In the US and UK, too, pundits completely missed the Trump and Brexit wave, waking up to rude shocks when the results trickled in. The Assembly Elections 2017 was again a humbling experience for many in the media and intellectual circles when many of their hypotheses, made owing to anecdotal evidences aided by their own biases, were proved wrong by the humble voter. 

Let us look at some of the most prominent media narratives that failed to pass muster this election season.

'The middle-class and poor sections hate demonetization'

Are people inconvenienced by demonetization? Yes. Did they hate it like many believed? Not to the extent of changing their voting patterns. The opposition parties went hammer-and-tongs after demonetization in the first half of the election campaign, but slowly the issue went off the radar with parties sensing no great public apathy to the notebandi move. The poor, who have always been forced to stand in queues, felt a strong sense of schadenfreude seeing more entitled and privileged people do the same. Thus, despite facing a short-term crisis, job loss and economic downturn, people didn’t punish the Modi government for demonetization. Rather, if seasoned UP journalist Sharat Pradhan is to be believed, BJP may have got some extra votes in Uttar Pradesh due to positive messaging of demonetization. Modi, towards the end of the campaign, even made fun of economists for getting the demonetization fallout wrong.

'Dalits have become disillusioned with BJP'

This has been one of the lingering narratives post Rohith Vemula’s death. The suicide of a young student in Hyderabad Central University was leveraged to maximum by the liberal brigade with politicians appropriating the issue, making it a totem of the clash between poor, historically-wronged Dalits and BJP, the  ‘party of savarnas’. The unfortunate Una incident was also used to paint BJP in an unflattering light. In both incidents, BJP can be rightfully accused of shoddy handling of tricky situations.

The HRD Ministry in Vemula's case and the state government in the Una thrashing, fell short of upholding what is morally just. Since then, both Smriti Irani and Anandiben Patel have been relieved of their duties. But the narrative of using these incidents to project BJP as an anti-Dalit party has failed stunningly in Uttar Pradesh. BJP won a whopping 112 of 144 seats in Uttar Pradesh, which have 23% or more Dalit population. While the core Jatav vote bank remained loyal to Mayawati, BJP could manage to wean away a significant chunk of the non-Jatav Dalit votes as indicated by surveys. 

'Religion and caste are the sole determining factors in Uttar Pradesh'

This is where almost every political analyst got it wrong. While religion and caste are undoubtedly key factors which determine voting preferences, a careful analysis of the data available shows that the electorate is not tone-deaf to other larger issues at play. In an increasingly aspirational society, the new generation is more than willing to break the silos and vote for a party which may serve his/her best interest. In other words, monolithic vote banks that politicians take for granted, may be on its way out. 

Gilles Verniers writing for Indian Express says that the percentage of ‘floating voters’ is increasing in every election, making it more difficult for parties with caste and identity as their sole playing card. BJP used this cleverly, empowering the non-dominant sections of particular castes. Its alliance with Apna Dal to get the Kurmi votes was an astute case of political management to stop the Yadav juggernaut. 

Also, this UP election has severely dented the hypothesis that Muslims don’t vote for BJP at all. The party won 105 out of 134 seats where Muslims are above 22%, as per How India Lives data. Several seats including Deoband, which has a heavy Muslim population, were also scooped up by BJP. While Mayawati believes EVM tampering is the main cause, a simpler explanation may be that a section of the Muslim voters, especially women, are willing to give BJP a chance, emboldened by their tough stance on triple talaq. The lesson here probably is that caste and religion and the associated voter preferences shouldn’t be considered in a binary manner. There are several inter-alias at play, and no particularly community or caste is duty bound to vote for a certain party.

'Youth are greatly displeased with Modi government'

This was another alt-narrative propped up thanks to a host of student protests at FTII, JNU, DU among other educational institution. While not going into the merits of each separate protest, it can be safely said that some of them were blown out of proportion owing to the accessibility to media the participants enjoyed. To put things into context, Kanhaiya Kumar was virtually projected as the next big leader who can take on the might of PM Modi. Kanhaiya belongs to AISF, a student wing of CPI. In the just concluded assembly election, NOTA comprehensively defeated CPI in both Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. In UP, NOTA polled six times more than CPI. While the media’s job is surely to highlight dissent and an alternative point of view, an over-the-top projection of a protest against the government may not actually add any meaningful perspective. 

'The great AAP wave'

This may be a case of over-correction. After failing to anticipate an AAP wave in Delhi in 2015, the media went overboard trying to find a lehar in both Goa and Punjab. In Punjab, many believed the party would sweep Malwa and do admirably well in other regions. The final result is there for all to see. Even in Malwa, Congress has done considerably better than AAP and has swept Doaba and Majha regions as well. In Punjab, where a party spokesperson had claimed boldly on live television that they would end with over 80 seats, they won just 20. Even more shockingly, two dozen AAP candidates lost their deposits. In Goa, AAP was a complete non-starter, polling only 57,000 votes in total and forfeiting its deposit in 38 out of the 39 seats. A truly shocking reality check for the Aam Aadmi. 

'Voters are happy with Akhilesh Yadav'

Akhilesh Yadav was touted as a development-oriented Chief Minister, and several of his schemes and projects like Agra Expressway, Metro, free ambulance service were glowingly written about. Yet, the development was unequal and confined to parts of the Yadav heartland and Western UP. A large section of Eastern Uttar Pradesh didn’t get its share of the development pie. Also, somewhere down the line, the voters perhaps expected a lot more from Akhilesh, or they simply had different priorities than Akhilesh. Even in the capital Lucknow and its neighbouring areas, BJP won handsomely, leaving Akhilesh humbled. 

'Irom Sharmila enjoys great popular support in Manipur'

Activist Iron Sharmila kept fast to repeal AFSPA for a long period of 16 years and finally decided to take the plunge in electoral politics. For a long time, it has been said that Sharmila enjoys a ground swell of support in Manipur, but her getting a meagre 90 votes is a shocking reality check. It is true that elections are won often by dint of money and muscle power, but when someone gets votes in double figure in a state election, conventional wisdom suggests people have rejected the ideology and views of the candidate. 

Sharmila's personal integrity and dedication to the cause is exemplary and can't be doubted at all. But this result has put serious doubts regarding how much the revocation of AFSPA resonates as an electoral issue in Manipur. There is a popular saying that, " Public Hai Sab Janti Hai'. Sometimes the knowledge of the public eludes our chattering class.