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Assam Elections 2016: Could the high turnout be a boon for the Congress?

Turnout percentages of over 90% in the Muslim-dominated areas of lower Assam may dent BJP's stride.

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As the dust settles in Assam, with the polls having ended, and Bihu being over, there's one development that everyone's marvelling over -- the highest number of voter turnout the state has ever seen. The first phase of the polls registered a record 82.2%, only to be outdone by the 84.72% turnout in the second phase. This, many say, is a continuation of the trend of high turnout since the 2014 general assembly polls, when there was a turnout of 80%, incidentally the highest in the country then.

HS Brahma, former CEC, who belongs to the state, says that the phenomena is a great development. "This shows that people are more aware today. Till recently, a voter turnout in the 60s was the norm," he says. This exceptional voter turnout, it is widely believed, is a result of BJP's war cry of 'poriborton', a call for a change from the 15-year-old rule of the Congress under veteran Tarun Gogoi, which is battling allegations of misrule and anti-incumbency. 

A closer look, however, shows a different picture. All the constituencies that have registered a turnout of over 90% have gone to the elections in the second phase. These constituencies, all located in the lower part of Assam, also have a sizeable Muslim population. Dhubri district, which recorded the highest voter turnout of 91.23%, had five constituencies with a turnout of over 90%. The constituency with the highest turnout is Jaleswar in Goalpara with a turnout of 93.53%. 

All the other constituencies in Goalpara, four in all, registered over 90% turnout. Barring Dalgaon, which lies in Mangaldoi, and Dhing and Rupohihat, of Nowgong district, all the other constituencies with over a 90% turnout lie in lower Assam. They are Chaygaon of Kamrup district, Mankachar, Salmara South, Golakgunj, Bilasipara West and Bilasipara (West) of the Dhubri district, and Goalpara (West) and Goalpara (East) in Goalpara, apart from Abhayapuri (North) and Abhayapuri (South) in Bongaigaon. All these constituencies have a high Muslim voter share. These are also some of the districts where the violence against Muslims have taken place.

Robiul Islam, a local journalist from Goalpara, says that it looks like either Congress or the AIUDF will benefit from it. "Most of these are traditionally Congress areas, and yet the AIUDF has had a good run in the recent years. Yet, during this elections, it looks like the AIUDF stronghold will erode away," says Islam. He says that the AIUDF is not a party that has a presence outside the state, and that this could work in Congress's favour. "The people here think that the religious ideology of the BJP can be met with only a national party like the Congress," he says. 

BJP strongman Himanta Biswa Sharma's claim that Bangladeshi Mulims will be sent away and Hindus will be welcomed is a factor for Congress's gain. Another of his claims, to push back the cut-off date of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) from 1971 to 1951 has also invited scorn from several quarters. 

Prominent political cartoonist Nituparna Rajbongshi, who is from Salmora, says that any form of politics that cater to religious ideologues will not win. "A lot of youngsters have been attracted by the cry of poriborton by the BJP. Yet, no one ones to vote in the name of religion here. Youngsters, from both the Muslim and Hindu communities, are progressive today," he says. He adds that both the BJP and the AIUDF, therefore stand to lose because of votes on the basis of religion. Some of the votes will go to the Congress, and the CPI (M).    

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