Assam Elections 2016: Can the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance pull off a win?

Electoral stakeholders in the state have geared up for this massive exercise with close to 1.98 crore voters deciding the fate of 566 candidates from parties including the BJP, Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodo People’s Front (BPF) and others. The state has 126 assembly seats (102 seats for General, 8 for Scheduled Caste and 16 for Scheduled Tribes). This time, over 3,000 hopefuls sought BJP tickets in Assam, which is also indicative of the party’s chances in the election. The first phase of balloting will be held on April 4, the second phase on April 11, with results to be declared on May 19.

In the first phase, elections will be held in 65 Assembly constituencies. Those in the fray are several political heavyweights including incumbent Chief Minister and Congress veteran Tarun Gogoi, BJP leader and the party’s chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal, AIUDF chief and perfume baron Badaruddin Ajmal, AGP leader and former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, former insurgent and BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary, BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma and the party’s Jorhat MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa and BJP’s Sum Ronghang.

Over last few months, Assam has witnessed elaborate public rallies and intense door-to-door campaigns with a mix of local and national issues at its fore. The poll campaign has reached a crescendo in the last few weeks with high profile leaders of the BJP and the Congress attending a series of public meetings. On behalf of the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his colleagues Amit Shah, Smriti Irani, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh have campaigned in rallies held across the state, showering people with promises. Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi have also attended public rallies, attacking Modi and his policies. Reports from the ground say that PM Modi’s rallies had drawn maximum crowds compared to any other leader of the two national parties.  

According to the grapevine in Congress, confidence among the party’s rank and file has dipped to a new low due to the saffron surge in the state, especially after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign in both Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys. Many Congress leaders now foresee their doom in the upcoming poll. Even pre-poll surveys predict an emphatic win for the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance.

But why has the BJP got a chance to win the Assembly elections despite its successive poll debacles in Delhi and Bihar recently and Modi’s diminishing charisma? It’s not because the present chief minister Gogoi has a record full of misdeeds. It’s not because Sonowal, the present Union Sports minister, has done anything remarkable (except for organising the South Asian Games 2016 in Guwahati and Shillong) for the state. It’s also not because Himanta Biswa Sarma, once the Chief Minister’s most trusted lieutenant, and a powerful minister and a strategist, left the Congress. It's because after 15 years of Congress rule in Assam, people in the state want change and the BJP is their only alternative. It’s a chance for Sonowal to prove his mettle, but only time will tell how far he will be able to do it .

In this election, the Congress has nothing new to offer to the people except reiteration of its earlier promises. It is busy guarding its bastions in upper and lower Assam from the BJP, AIUDF and BPF. Although traditionally and arithmetically, the Congress has an edge over the BJP in many areas of the state, the public mood is not in favour of the Congress’ state leadership and the high command much to their chagrin. However, the Congress has won three consecutive Assembly elections in Assam, barring the party’s poor performance in the last Lok Sabha elections, compared to the saffron party. The party is still a dominant political force in South Assam’s Barak Valley, a region mainly inhabited by Bengali-speaking people. 13 of the MLAs from the 15 assembly constituencies of the Valley are from the Congress. Of its two Lok Sabha constituencies, one is held by the Congress while the other is by AIUDF.

This time, however, things may change. People here are likely to support the BJP which has helped the Valley get connected to the rest of the country through broad gauge rail track, the work for which started back in the UPA days but was never fast tracked. The BJP, through its poll manifesto, has promised the moon to the masses, including solutions to the most pressing issues of the state. This includes emphasis on sorting out the issue of clause 6 of the Assam Accord (1985) that deals with the question of citizenship and assimilation of various population groups and cultures; laws to  sternly deal with industries, businesses, SMEs or any other agencies employing infiltrators; working closely with the Centre for "complete sealing of the India-Bangladesh border" in the state and more Central funds for 2016-2020 compared to 2011-2015.

While claiming to run on the platform of development, the BJP  has sidelined other important issues and kept them from being raised at public rallies. The Congress, in turn, is seen just defending allegations hurled by the BJP. 

What is unfortunate is that amidst the blistering poll campaign by political leaders crisscrossing the length and breadth of the state, key issues like floods and erosion, lack of electricity, growing unemployment, dipping agricultural production, market linkage for the farmers’ produce, rampant corruption have remained confined to the manifestos of the parties.