Arunachal Pradesh crisis: BJP may win round one, but will face Congress "noes" in RS

The BJP may be confident of the President and Court giving the nod for central rule in Arunachal Pradesh, but the decision could hit a hurdle in Rajya Sabha when it comes up for Parliament's ratification.

Any proclamation under Article 356, imposing President's rule, needs to be ratified by both Houses of Parliament within two months. "If either of the two houses reject it, the pre-proclamation situation would have to be restored," said PD T Acharya, former Secretary General of Lok Sabha.

With the BJP-led NDA in a minority in the Upper House, the imposition of President's rule in Arunachal Pradesh is unlikely to get approval. The UPA-led by Congress, which is opposing central rule in the state, has 78 members against 67 of the BJP-led NDA.

The Cabinet recommendation for President's rule in the northeastern state has sparked off a political war with the BJP saying the government had taken a constitutional position and Congress bracing up to challenge it in Supreme Court and block it in Parliament. The party has filed a petition before the apex court registry.

As home minister Rajnath Singh met President Pranab Mukherjee, who wanted an explanation on the circumstances leading to the recommendation for President's rule, the BJP justified the government stand. The BJP is confident that it would be a case of "heads you lose, tails I win" for the government. According to party sources, going by the Constitution, there should not be a gap of six months between sittings of the assembly. On the other hand, if the Court held that the December 16 session was valid, then it should also have to endorse its outcome that the Nabam Tuki-led Congress government was in minority. The six month period to hold a session lapsed on January 21.

The crisis has brought the role of Arunachal Pradesh governor Jyoti Prakash Rajkhowa under the scanner with Congress accusing him of acting as a BJP "agent". A former Chief Secretary of the state, he was closely associated with the Assam Student's Union agitation and took active part in political activities after he retired. Rajkhowa took a tough stand against Bangladeshi immigrants saying it posed a challenge for the northeastern states.

The Congress alleged that Rajkhowa helped its rebel lawmakers by calling an assembly session a month ahead of time. The governor had convened the assembly on December 16 and not asked the chief minister to prove his majority, according to sources. The Congress is of the view that he was acting under pressure from the BJP.

Congress leader and former union minister Kapil Sibal said Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah and RSS were involved in "conspiracy to destabilise Arunachal Pradesh." The party urged the President to thwart any attempt to impose central rule.

"This is the first time since Independence, that such a recommendation has been made to impose President's rule in the midst of a Court hearing," the Congress said in its memorandum to Mukherjee.

The BJP blamed Congress for the entire crisis. "Politically, this is an internal matter of the Congress and constitutionally, either way they have lost the constitutional authority to be in government in Arunachal Pradesh," spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi told reporters.

It all began on December 16 when 21 rebel Congress lawmakers along with 11 BJP MLAs and two independents in the 60-member assembly decided to "impeach" speaker Nabam Rebia at a makeshift venue. Tuki and his 26 lawmakers boycotted the session saying it was unconstitutional. At a hotel, the rebels and BJP members moved a "no-confidence motion" at proceedings chaired by a rebel Deputy Speaker Norbu Thongdok. The Guwahati High Court put the decisions on hold and after it dismissed the Speaker's petition, he moved the Supreme Court which has referred the case to a Constitution bench.