Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) gamble to go national may pay good dividend as results of nearly all exit polls showed that the new political outfit is getting enough votes to achieve status of a national party status.
To get recognised as a national party, a party needs to secure at least six percent (6%) of the valid votes polled in any four or more states and in addition win at least four seats from any state or states.
A party can also become a national party if it wins at least two percent (2%) seats in Lok Sabha which is at least 11 seats (these members needs to be elected from at least three different states) in the 543 member Lok Sabha.
On an average, most of the exit polls showed AAP getting anywhere 5-10 seats across India. But whether AAP will be able to breach the double figure mark remains a question only May 16 would answer.
Interestingly, in AAP's first laboratory, Delhi, where it made a dream debut in December 2013, the party seems to be on a sticky wicket. As per the surveys, the party seems to be getting only 0-2 seats with none even predicting it a possibility of 3 seats.
However, at the same time, nearly all the exit polls showed the new political outfit getting a good vote share in Delhi neighbouring states like Haryana and Punjab. In Punjab, AAP was predicted to win, on average, at least 3 seats.
In Haryana, the party was not predicted to win any seat but was expected to get a good vote share.
In Kerala and Maharashtra too, several exit polls showed party getting vote share. A couple of exit polls showed party getting at least one seat in Maharashtra.
An average of four such exit polls – India TV (C-Voter), IBN (CSDS), News 24 (Chanakya), ABP (Nielsen) – gave five seats to AAP across India.
Some may call it a huge blow to AAP, which fought on 434 seats that is more than total seats fought by BJP across India, dismissing its effect. However, many others including AAP leaders, claim that final vote share of AAP across India, irrespective of number of seats, may be very encouraging.
Going by the exit poll figures, many believes, the decline of Left and Congress leaves a huge political vacuum. This vacuum could be a huge opportunity for AAP to fill to become a national alternative to BJP. "If we go by history it always these surveys that lose and the political parties win. This time too we think that same is going to happen and history will repeat itself. AAP will definitely will become a national party," AAP's senior leader Dilip K Pandey told dna.
ABP-Nielsen – 4 seats
CNN-IBN-CSDS - 3-7 (average 5) seats
News24 - Today Chankaya – 6 seats
India TV –C Voter – 5 seats