A DIALOGUE WITH JC: Analysing Ahmed Patel's victory in Gujarat Rajya Sabha elections

This week on his special show A DIALOGUE WITH JC, Zee Media's CEO Regional Channels Jagdeesh Chandra analysed the results of just finished Gujarat Rajya Sabha elections. In his review, Chandra elaborated on the ramifications of the Gujarat results.

Commenting on BJP president and newly-elected Rajya Sabha MP Amit Shah, Chandra said that Amit Shah would go to any extent to ensure his party's victory. According to Chandra, nobody knew Shah outside Gujarat before he became the party president. But now he is ruling Indian politics. Modi and Shah are made for each other. On the other hand, JC called Ahmed Patel, a true executor.

Talking elaborately on these results, Chandra said that it would be very difficult for the Congress to retain its image. It would also be a challenge for the BJP to retain its fort. Considering BJP’s resources and monitoring, Chandra also rejected the notion that Congress now could stop Shah's winning spree. According to Chandra, the fight between Shah and Patel could now continue in the Upper House where Shah is a first-time member. Chandra anticipated that Shah can now take Jaitley's position in the Upper house.

According to Jagdeesh Chandra, Amit Shah would not accept his political and strategic defeat in these elections and his party could approach Supreme Court or the High Court. Calling Ahmed Patel's victory a technical one, Chandra said BJP has erred in depending so much on Shankersinh Vaghela. But BJP will honour the secret deal if any with Vaghela.

Chandra also said that there was little role of Rahul Gandhi in these elections. It was all the game of Sonia and Ahmed Patel. He also considered the role of Shakti Singh Gohil and Ashok Gehlot.

According to Chandra the real hero in these elections was the EC and it of error of judgement to have Aanchal Kumar Joti as CEC which backfired for Modi-Shah. He also said that EC had changed its decision at the last moment only because of media’s pressure on that night.

He also believed it was embarrassing for Shah that on his 3rd anniversary as the president he had to face this strategic defeat. Jagdish Chandra also raised doubt that a few BJP leaders could be happy with this political defeat of Amit Shah.

Q.1 What are political inferences of Patel’s breakthrough victory from Shah’s strategies?

As far as Amit Shah is concerned, he is a mastermind strategist. He is a unique combination of hard work and strategy. He is a miracle, a discovery of Narendra Modi for the country. His miracles in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, UP, and Bihar, are remarkable. The way he has made a mark in Kerala, has promoted BJP in West Bengal, is all because of Narendra Modi’s supervision. Modi and Shah are made for each other. It is unique combination in politics, in the history of this country. We can define Ahmed Patel as a decent and dignified person, unlike Amit Shah he operates from the back. At the end of the day, Amit remains ‘Shah’ of politics in India.

Q.2 Will Ahmed Patel's victory prevent Amit Shah's victory wheels across the country?

Some people do believe that Congress’s victory will hamper Shah’s dream of victory across the country. But I don’t agree with that. Amit Shah is present almost everywhere, and 2019 elections is the target. After looking at Kerala, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, and Amit Shah’s strategies, his research, and his monitoring, we can say that one defeat in Gujarat is not going to stop him.

Q. 3 Will the resurgence of the game between two strategists of Gujarat begin afresh?

One effect of the election results of Gujarat will be that Amit Shah and Ahmed Patel will now start the game of check and mate between the BJP and the Congress, which will start with Gujarat elections. There will be elections in October and November this year in the state. The challenge for the Congress is to keep the image, that is made from this election, intact, and the challenge before Amit Shah is that he has always been winning elections, with how many numbers will he win this time. The game of check and mate can be seen in the days to come.

Q.4 Now Amit Shah and Ahmed Patel will be in the Rajya Sabha together, what will be the impact?

Ahmed Patel has been in the Rajya Sabha for years, and now, Amit Shah has also entered the scene. So, the battle which was earlier fought outside the Rajya Sabha, can now be fought between the two leaders in the House. As far as the BJP is concerned, the presence of Amit Shah in the Rajya Sabha will increase the morale of the BJP. There is also a possibility that Amit Shah might be declared BJP leader in the Rajya Sabha instead of Arun Jaitley.

Q.5 Is Election Commission the hero or was the decision taken under pressure?

Some people believe EC has emerged as a hero in this case, however, a person has said that it’s a victory of constitutional authorities. As far as the chief election commissioner, Achal Kumar Jyoti, is concerned, it was earlier decided that everything will take place in Ahmedabad. Some believe that he entered the scene and counted the votes, and declared the results under the pressure of media. However, as the media was mostly in favour of Patel, this might be true.

Q.6 What is the role of Rahul Gandhi in this political drama?

When all political leaders reached the office of the Election Commission in the middle of the night, who had sent them? Was it Rahul? Was it Sonia? Or did they themselves went to lodge the complaint for Patel? These questions cannot be answered. However, it is believed that Rahul was not in the picture, this game is entirely played by Sonia and Ahmed Patel.

Q.7 What is the role of Gujarat Congress in-charge Ashok Gehlot?

The crux of the entire episode is that some Congress leaders have done effective work in favour of Ahmed Patel to bring out this result. One of the names is Ashok Gehlot.

Q.8 How are Amit Shah, Ahmed Patel and Modi's personal relationships in Gujarat politics?

As far as Shah and Patel is concerned, the relations are normal, both of them are very mature. However, things got bitter when Shah had to go to jail for six months for cases like Sohrabuddin Sheikh encounter.