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5 questions that arise post BJP's debacle in Uttarakhand

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BJP lost all the three seats in the Uttarakhand by-elections recently. Incidentally, Uttarakhand was one of the states which became “Congress mukht” according to Narendra Modi i.e. BJP won all the 5 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. But in a stunning reversal of fortune, the party lost all the seats which were up for the by-election, including two "safe seats". There has been a marked silence from the BJP top brass after the election results came. Congress leaders were also relatively guarded in their reaction as Narendra Modi won an overwhelming mandate only two months back. However, media reports suggest that Amit Shah has already called a meeting of top leaders for introspection. With the impending by-elections in Punjab, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and Assembly elections in 4 states shortly after that, Modi's trusted aide has many things to worry about.  

Below are 5 questions that arise after the BJP's loss in Uttarakhand. 

1. Is the Modi wave over?
The huge tsunami of emotions which transformed into the massive mandate in May 2014 is a thing of the past. It was not only rousing support for Modi but a collective referendum against policy inertia that had marred the UPA government. But BJP can't rest on its laurels. The electorate will no longer vote based on past issues. 

2. Where are the "acche din"? 
The government is still in its early days and it is unfair to pass judgment on it so soon, but the state of the economy can't be revived and black money can't be brought back so quickly. However, what the government has failed to show in its first two months is an intent to solve pressing problems. Maybe it is doing its best, but with the government virtually cutting ties with the media, the achievements are not getting highlighted. Even the government's resolute stand in WTO has largely came across as a PR disaster. Inflation still remains a sore point. Arun Jaitley failed to press home the initiative in his debut budget speech where the government merely stressed on continuity. All these have given an impression that the government is in cruise control mode, not the reboot mode it should be in. The overwhelming feeling is that the “acche din” are still not on the anvil and unlikely to come anytime soon. This perception has to change soon or the saffron unit will have to brace itself for more unpleasant surprises. 

3. Is focussing on regional leaders the answer for Congress?
The Congress did a course correction in Uttarakhand when they replaced Vijay Bahuguna with Harish Rawat as the chief minister. Rawat who is by far the most popular Congress leader in the state managed to revive the state and subsequently his party by concentrating on the development agenda. Incidentally, Rawat was stated to be the Chief Minister earlier but was mysteriously kept out. This is the model Congress needs to emulate in every state. They need to push leaders who are popular and capable and not necessarily the person with the highest loyalty to 10 Janpath. Many pundits believe the result in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election could have been different if Jyotiraditya Scindia was named as the chief minister candidate. 

4. Does BJP need to go back to the drawing board?
Political powers have realigned themselves after the general elections. Like the anti-Congress sentiment that was the glue for political parties to ally with each other, now it is anti Modi-ism that is bringing a few together. In the upcoming Assembly elections, different states will have different political equations. So no over arching common strategy will work for all. The party will need to micro manage the elections. Thankfully for them, Amit Shah is a wily customer and this debacle will certainly get him out of his comfort zone. Special focus will be on the Haryana elections where BJP did very well in May but will face a tough challenge in Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Can Amit Shah get the caste equation right? Narendra Modi may also be forced to actively campaign for the state polls specially in states where the party will not project any face as the CM candidate. BJP also needs to keep the RSS in good humour so that they continue to get support like they did in the general elections. 

5. Has the Congress learnt from its mistakes?

The Congress behaved like an ostrich with its head buried in sand by solely blaming a lack of communication for its shocking loss in the general elections. But then how did it manage to communicate so well in Uttarakhand within two months? The fact of the matter is the Manmohan Singh government failed to do any substantial work in the last few years due to its internal contradictions, only managing to push some hurriedly drafted bills at the very end. The sooner the Congress manages to interpret the mandate of the general elections, the sooner will it be able to get its act together on the national scale. 

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