2nd conviction could end Lalu's political journey

Soon after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walked away from the Grand Alliance and tied up with the BJP, RJD chief Lalu Prasad seemed to have had a premonition of his second conviction in the multi-crore fodder scam. Fearing uncertainty, he firmly positioned his son and political heir apparent, Tejashwi Yadav, as a leader of non-BJP forces in the August 27 'Desh Bachao — Bhajpa Bhagao' rally.

This is Lalu's ninth trip to jail and third to Jharkhand's Birsa Munda Prison. Those close to him say the leader dreads December ever since he was arrested during the month in 1970s, for the first time, for leading a student agitation. Also, in 1997, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) filed a chargesheet against him in the same month.

Yadav has six cases related to swindling money through fake bills and vouchers pertaining to cattle feed registered against him. While four cases are still pending adjudication, he has been found guilty in two. He is already barred from contesting elections till 2024. His first conviction in 2013, affected the party's fortunes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

However, Lalu's latest imprisonment will hardly have any impact as other mechanisms have already been put in place, RJD spokesman Manoj Jha says.

The RJD leaders have already made clear their intention to mull acquittal of co-accused former chief minister and Congressman turned JD (U) leader Jagannath Mishra. The state where the polity is deeply fractured on caste lines, the acquittal of Mishra, an upper caste Brahmin, has given fodder to Lalu supporters to drum up the caste angle in their leader's conviction.

Analysts, however, point out that if Lalu does not get an early bail, it will be a tough task for Tejashwi to lead an anti-BJP front in the 2019 general elections. The junior Yadav is also facing serious trouble related to the IRCTC hotel case.

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has registered cases against several members of Lalu's family under provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA). Lalu Yadav's daughter Misa Bharti and wife Rabri Devi also figure in the cases. The matter dates back to the time when Lalu was the railway minister in the UPA government.

Even as the result of the last Assembly polls showed that the RJD's Yadav-Muslim support base has remained intact, his absence from the scene will be a big boon for Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)-BJP alliance. With the probe agencies showing a remarkable alacrity in proceeding against his family, it becomes a possibility that the RJD may have to find leadership outside the Lalu clan to keep the political base intact, which is unlikely to be affected by his second conviction.

RJD leaders are, therefore, focusing to get Lalu out on bail in a month or two. They are planning to unleash a state-wide campaign to project him as a 'martyr', crucified for fighting the scourge of communalism and raising the voice for backward castes. But since the quantum of punishment will be announced in January, Lalu will be spending Christmas and New Year in jail.

While the verdict is bound to send out ripples of disruption in the residual Congress-led UPA camp, new Congress president Rahul Gandhi seems to have forged a bonhomie with Tejashwi. Rahul had hosted Tejashwi over lunch at a restaurant in Delhi last November, indicating that he was not averse to continuing with him. Relations between Lalu and Rahul had soured in 2013, after he rejected the ordinance issued by the Manmohan Singh government to save convicted legislators from disqualification.

Rahul's act sealed his fate. It is still to be seen whether Rahul will distance himself from the Lalu camp or forge ties with the new crop of RJD leadership.