Bua-Bhatija would benefit from a Congress that remains weak.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have called a joint press conference at a five-star hotel in Lucknow on Saturday. This is widely expected to be the platform for the announcement of the alliance between the two parties for the coming 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The alliance is likely exclude the Congress.
The invitation for the press conference has said it would be addressed jointly by SP's Akhilesh Yadav and BSP's Mayawati, both former Chief Ministers of Uttar Pradesh, who have taken to referring to each other as 'Bua' (aunt) and 'Bhatija' (nephew).
The alliance is likely to be of massive impact in the battleground state, that sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. That is a massive 14.73 percent of the entire strength of the Lower House of Parliament.
The two parties, which have been arch rivals over the past two decades, are expected to announce a seat sharing formula for 78 of the 80 seats. They are expected to leave the Amethi and Rae Bareli constituencies, which are pocket boroughs of Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi respectively.
But why leave the Congress out of the alliance?
Here are five reasons why it could make sense for the SP and BSP:
Survival
The Modi-Shah election juggernaut at the helm of the BJP has summarily brushed almost the entire opposition aside in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections. The BJP and its allies won 72 of the 80 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha and 325 of 403 seats in the Assembly elections. Both SP and BSP understand that they need to merge their respective vote banks to take the fight to the BJP. The Congress brings little to the table as far as SP and BSP are concerned.
Congress's rising 'soft Hindutva'
The Congress is making its own pitch for survival with its bid at what is being referred to as 'soft Hindutva'. To this end, Rahul Gandhi has made highly publicised visits to major temples in poll-bound states and his Kailash Manasarovar pilgrimage. He was also declared a 'janeu dhari Hindu' (a Hindu who wears the ceremonial thread that signifies ritual purity). None of this would gel with the post-Mandal politics of the SP or the Dalit assertion of the BSP. It would also fail at retaining the Muslim votes.
Splitting the upper caste vote
Mayawati is making a bid at retaining as much as possible of the Brahmin votes she has attracted since 2007. But upper caste voters - Brahmins, Vaishyas, Thakurs and Bhumihars - seem to be jumping ship fleeing in droves. The calculation behind keeping the Congress out is that it might help split the upper caste vote that is perceivably going to the BJP. This could also help keep the Congress from making any gains in the state.
They have smelt blood
SP and BSP had come together to defeat the BJP in bye-elections to two Lok Sabha and three Assembly constituencies in 2018, in truck with not just each other but with smaller parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Nishad Party. They have given the bypoll tickets of their joint bid to candidates of these parties, and saw the Nishad Party candidate pull off an upset win in Gorakhpur using the SP symbol. The Congress was not part of that effort. So the SP and BSP have not found reason to give it a role this time either.
Bargaining power in a post-poll setup
Keeping the Congress out of their alliance might not only help undercut the BJP but also ensure the Congress doesn't gain any ground over the two seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress has never come to power at the Centre without winning big in Uttar Pradesh. The only times it performed poorly in UP but still took power at the Centre were in 2004 and 2009, when it had outside support from the SP and/or BSP.
An SP-BSP truck would already have two former CMs - Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati (not to mention a third in Mulayam Singh Yadav). Bringing the Congress into the picture would only add more confusion with Rahul Gandhi and his Prime Ministerial ambitions. Even as Akhilesh continues to show deference to the politically senior Mayawati, neither is presently comfortable with backing Rahul as the PM face.
A weaker Congress would mean greater bargaining power for the two parties from UP in a post-poll scenario. It would also leave both SP and BSP individually open to the possibility of throwing their lot in with a non-Congress, non-BJP front should a need arise.
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