The New Year is unlikely to offer any respite to the political parties. Year 2018 will witness interesting poll battles in as many as eight states, whose results are expected to set the tone for 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
These eight states will send 99 MPs to the 17th Lok Sabha in 2019 elections.
Of these eight states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Nagaland are in the BJP's kitty and the party has already made clear that it is not getting bogged down by its Hindutva identity and has the acumen to wrest power in a Christian majority state like Meghalaya.
Piggy riding on the National People's Party (NPP), its ally in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP has already effected defection of eight legislators in Meghalaya, including five from the ruling Congress. The resignations ahead of assembly polls due in February have come as a jolt to the ruling Congress government led by Mukul Sangma, reducing its numbers to 24 MLAs in the 60-member assembly.
In Tripura, the BJP looks all set to give the CPM government led by Manik Sarkar if not dislodge it from power. Led by the master strategists of the BJP in the northeast, Ram Madhav and in-charge of Tripura, Sunil Deodhar, the BJP has succeeded in getting non-existent BJP a foothold in the State where it has the strength of seven legislatures, six Trinamool Congress MLAs and a Congress MLA.
But after Gujarat polls that reduced the BJP to double digits, the road ahead in 2018 may not be as easy for the BJP as it seems. Though in Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje government has a brute majority of 163 seats in the 200-member assembly, it is facing tough political scenario because of a variety of reasons that include unrest by farmers, unemployed youth and Gujjar agitation.
The recently held local body elections have also given jitters to the BJP where the Congress emerged victorious in four zila parishad seats, besides 16 of the 27 panchayat samiti seats and six nagar palika seats.
Unlike Gujarat, the Congress has well entrenched organisation in Rajasthan and a promising youth leader in Sachin Pilot, besides the political acumen of Ashok Gehlot who showed his prowess as in-charge in Gujarat.
The BJP has tough elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as the governments of both Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh are seeking a fourth term for the party against high anti-incumbency. Corruption and farmers' unrest are the two other important issues faced by both the governments.
The significant loss of Chitrakoot recently despite high decibel campaign by Chouhan has come as a wakeup call for the BJP. As the Congress, like in Rajasthan, has sound organisational set up in Madhya Pradesh and a leader in Jyotiraditya Scindia, the BJP will be requiring PM Modi's help to stand up to the challenge.
All is not hunky dory for the BJP in Karnataka, where it is desperately trying to strengthen Hindutva bogey by whipping up anti-Tipu Sultan sentiments to counter the possibility of Lingayat surge as a separate religion by a well-crafted move of Congress. The JD(S), however, could emerge as kingmaker with opinion polls giving it 43 seats as against 88 of Congress and 82 of BJP and 11 to others.
TOUGH FIGHT LIKELY
- These eight states will send 99 MPs to the 17th Lok Sabha in 2019 elections.
- BJP will have to fight anti-incumbency in four of these states.
- Unlike Gujarat, the Congress has well entrenched organisation in Rajasthan and MP.
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 "Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi")
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