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| Edited By: Arghya Roy Chowdhury,Anamica Nair |Source: DNA webdesk |Updated: May 16, 2016, 11:47 PM IST
After a nearly one and half month long election campaign in five states of the country, it is time to get the first sneak peek into the results which will be declared on May 19th.
The exit polls are being published and it will give us a trend of the possible result. Although by no means it is the final say and much can change come Thursday.
It will be interesting to see if BJP can form the first saffron government in Assam in alliance with AGP.
Whether Congress can hold on to one of its last bastion of Kerala, if the alliance between Congress and Left is enough to thwart feisty Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and finally if Amma magic continues to linger in Tamil Nadu.
The elections in West Bengal were held in six phases between March 11 and April 11. In Assam, the polling was conducted in two phases, on March 11 and March 14. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry saw polling today.
Election Commission deferred polling in Aravakurichi and Thanjavur constituencies to May 23. On the basis of report of its Observer, the poll panel decided to postpone the elections to May 23 so that "the vitiating effect of the money power created by the distribution of money and gift items to the electors of the constituency loses its intensity and a more congenial atmosphere conducive to the conduct of free and fair election is created."
If the exit poll results hold true, this will be a major dampener for Congress. It will lose control of another two states-viz Kerala and Assam. It will not only be a temporary political blow but will have its impact in the future Rajya Sabha equation. Tamil Nadu may turn out to be the saving grace for Congress if it manages to come to power with DMK as the senior partner. However, the exit polls have failed to throw up any definite trends for Tamil Nadu with contradictory results being reported by multiple agencies. Hence Amma's fate is still uncertain.
Best case scenario for Congress: Possible hung assembly in Assam, a win in Tamil Nadu and a half-decent performance in Bengal ( assuming exit polls are correct).
BJP will be reasonably pleased with their performance if exit poll results are replicated on 19th. The party will be win power in Assam, the only state where it had a reasonable shot at power. However the exit polls show BJP gaining very little traction in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It may win a few seats but in no state does the saffron party emerge as the deciding factor or a credible third alternative that it envisioned itself to become. So, BJP's goal of becoming a truly pan-Indian party may not come good if this exit polls are an indicator of actual results. This might send Amit Shah back to the drawing board.
Best case scenario for BJP: Win in Assam, reaching two digits in the other three states.
TOTAL SEATS: 140
AXIS MY INDIA:
UDF : 38-48
LDF : 88-101
BSP : 0-3
C-VOTER:
LDF: 78
UDF: 58
NDA: 2
Others: 2
NEWS NATION:
UDF : 68-72
LDF : 67-71
BJP : 0-2
TODAY'S CHANAKYA
LDF : 75 (+/- 9)
UDF : 57 (+/- 9)
BJP+: 8 (+/- 4)
Others : 0 (+/- 1)
TOTAL SEATS: 235
NEWS NATION
AIADMK : 95-99
DMK : 114-118
PWF : 14
BJP : 4
AXIS MY INDIA
AIADMK : 89-101
DMK : 124-140
BJP : 0-3
OTHERS : 4-8
C-VOTER
AIADMK : 139
DMK : 78
BJP : 0
OTHERS : 17
TODAY'S CHANAKYA:
AIADMK : 90 (+/- 9)
DMK-Congress : 140 (+/- 11)
PWF & Others : 4 (+/- 2)
TOTAL SEATS: 294
C-VOTER:
TMC : 167
CPI(M)+ : 75
CONGRESS : 45
BJP : 4
OTHERS : 3
ABP NIELSEN:
TMC: 163
LEFT+ : 126
BJP+ : 1
OTHERS: 4
TODAY'S CHANAKYA
TMC: 210 (+/- 14)
Left-Cong: 70 (+/- 9)
BJP+ : 14 (+/- 5)
Others: 0 (+/-2)
MY AXIS INDIA:
TMC : 233-253
LEFT+ : 38-51
BJP : 1-5
OTHERS : 2-5
NEWS NATION:
TMC: 153
LEFT+ : 136
BJP : 0
OTHERS : 5
Total seats: 126
AXIS MY INDIA
BJP+ : 79-93
Congress : 26-33
AIUDF : 6-10
Others : 1-4
C-VOTER:
Congress : 41
BJP+ : 57
AIUDF : 18
Others: 10
TODAY'S CHANAKYA
BJP : 90 (+/- 9 seats)
CONGRESS: 27 (+/- 7 seats)
AIUDF : 9 (+/- 3 seats)
Others: 0 (+/- 2 seats)
#TCExitPoll #Assam Elections @BJP4India @AmitShah @narendramodi
— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) May 16, 2016
Vote Forecast
BJP+: 43% ± 3%
Congress+: 32% ±3%
AIUDF:11% ±3%
Others:14% ±3%
BJP+ : 81
Congress : 33
AIUDF+ : 10
Others : 2
