Decoding PM Narendra Modi's cabinet reshuffle

From rewarding performance to pleasing the RSS, PM Modi and Amit Shah maintained a delicate balance in the cabinet reshuffle and expansion. Jagdeesh Chandra, CEO, ZMCL, decodes the finer details of the cabinet reshuffle.

What were the parameters of the cabinet expansion and reshuffle?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a distinct style. He has left for China leaving behind people in suspense, thrill and emotion after such an elaborate expansion. The biggest parameters are delivery, performance and loyalty and the reshuffle and expansion have taken place on the basis of these things.

What is the impact of the Amit Shah factor in this reshuffle?

It's the Amit Shah phenomenon. There is a culture in BJP and those who know, say that at least 80 per cent appointments, postings and transfers have taken place on the recommendations and opinion of Amit Shah.

What was the role of the RSS in the reshuffle?

RSS is an eternal fact of the BJP. The decision was taken by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi in consonance with RSS and the reshuffle was discussed in entirety. Apart from the issue of Uma Bharti and Nitin Gadkari, whom RSS wanted to give the Defence Ministry, no dispute or differences in opinion were visible. So it can be ascertained that RSS had a complete role. 

Why was JD(U) not included in the cabinet? Is the Modi-Nitin alliance on the verge of a break-up?

It is learnt that there was no consensus between them in terms of seat distribution. Nitish Kumar wanted two posts of cabinet ministers but Narendra Modi and Amit Shah wanted to give one of each - cabinet minister and minister of state - which could be decided between them. Shah and Modi feared that had two cabinet ranks been given to JD(U), Shiv Sena and AIADMK would also make similar demands.

Why didn't AIADMK join the cabinet, was there no consensus between Shah and the AIADMK leaders?

The story of AIADMK is different. There are two camps in the party, both the camps have joined hands broadly. After the death of Jayalalithaa, with the scale of economic empire they have, the Income Tax is keeping a tight vigil. They know their fate and broadly they also want to join hands with the Central government. So consensus is clear, but there is no consensus between the AIADMK camps. One camp with 21 MLAs has broken away and there is a risk that it can put up a claim for chief minister. In that case Narendra Modi and Amit Shah would not like to take any risk.

Will there be another cabinet expansion to accommodate associates like JD(U)-AIADMK or is this a closed chapter till 2019?

I think there will be a fourth reshuffle. There are speculations that the expansion would take place on 17 September, in which JD(U)-AIADMK would be accommodated and a decision on the elevation of Shiv Sena will also be taken. So the chapter hasn't closed yet.

Will few CMs of BJP-ruled states be removed and accommodated in the next possible reshuffle?

Firstly, there is a dispute whether the reshuffle will happen on September 17 or October 17. As far as CMs are concerned, it is learnt that few ministers of states may be inducted in the cabinet. Yes, there is no denying that one or two ministers may leave state politics to get a taste of Central politics.

Why didn't Gadkari want to take charge of Railways?

Nitin Gadkari is a visionary leader. He works in his own style. He is likely to have thought that there is nuisance every day in the Rail Ministry - people keep asking for resignations on morale grounds at the time of any untoward incidents. In this cabinet expansion, he has been given a new ministry - Ganga rejuvenation - which he likes.

Do you think Piyush Goyal will succeed in Railways?

Piyush Goyal has done wonders in power and coal reforms. As a result-oriented minister, he will rejuvenate the Rail Ministry.

Why do you think Suresh Prabhu got the Commerce and Industry Ministry after his stint in Railways?

It was a brave decision by Narendra Modi and Prabhu is an honest and result-oriented leader. Modi was happy with his performance, hence he gave one more chance to Prabhu.

In the entire episode of cabinet reshuffle, ultimately who do you think emerged as the real beneficiary or hero?

In this entire episode, Dharmendra Pradhan emerged as Hero No.1. The way he converted the Petroleum Ministry from a corporate ministry to a ministry for the poor and implemented the Ujjwala Scheme, got him a promotion at such a young age in the same department. Overall, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are satisfied with this reshuffle. They take their decisions based on merit.

Why was Arun Jaitley not relieved of the Finance ministry despite pressure from RSS?

Arun Jaitley is the biggest mystery of the Modi government. He is extremely competent, result-oriented and efficient person. When he argues, you have no choice but to agree with his arguments. The PM also has agree to his logic he presents. There was pressure from the RSS to take the Finance Ministry away from Jaitley. The policies of the Finance Ministry, whether it was demonetization or GST, it is believed that traders and businessmen who are the vote banks of the BJP are getting away from the party. There were efforts to remove him from the ministry last year also, but the PM used his veto to protect him. If Jaitley is removed at this juncture, a wrong message would be communicated to the international community that our decision on demonetization and GST was wrong and this will damage the image of the government. That's why PM used his veto and convinced the RSS.

Why were retired bureaucrats given preference over politicians in the cabinet?

This is surprising. Four retired bureaucrats were inducted in the cabinet. He must have thought that professionals should be brought in. Modi is known for doing experiments. He has done a new experiment with Hardeep Singh Puri. RK Singh has been given power ministry while KJ Alphons of Kerala has been given Tourism. This is a surprise element from the government.

Was there any political message in the reshuffle?

There is a political message in every step by Modi. The message of the reshuffle is, 'I am in command'. That's why people believe that in Modi's rule, the democracy in India has turned into a presidential form of government. This is the biggest message from this expansion.

Is there any role of the Anand Pal factor behind making Gajendra Singh Shekhawat a minister from Rajasthan?

There is only one factor in Rajasthan - that is Vasundhara Raje factor. Whatever happens in the state is in consultation with her, as per her equation. That's why if Shekhawat has been made minister, it is after consultation with her. This is mere coincidence that the CM and Shekhawat- both belong to the Rajput community. Anand Pal Singh was a gangster killed in an encounter. Despite that, there was sympathy for him in the Rajput community. Amit Shah might have taken feedback from the RSS and Shekhawat is known to be close to RSS. It is possible that he has been made a minister keeping elections scheduled next year in mind. But it is not fair to say that Shekhawat got a ministerial berth due to the Anand Pal factor.