Predictability is the worst possible policy in dealing with Pakistan

One can exaggerate the significance of David Headley’s disclosures in Chicago. Why? Headley had, it may be recalled, plea-bargained with his prosecutors to come clean on his role, along with Rana, in reconnoitring potential targets in India prior to the Mumbai attacks.

Headley faced the death penalty for his actions, so he plea-bargained, and is singing lustily to save his life. That said, the essential facts of his testimony cannot be dismissed, although the details can be questioned.

Headley’s testimony makes it abundantly clear that he was working for the ISI, an integral part of the Pakistani army. Unarguably, the ISI planned the Mumbai attacks, trained the terrorists, and financed the entire enterprise.

The attempts by Pakistani apologists who claim that rogue elements in the ISI perpetrated this massacre or that the Pakistani army did not know what the ISI was doing requires a willing suspension of disbelief. The ISI is an integral part of the Pakistani army; before becoming Pakistani army chief, General Kayani was the ISI director-general.

The Americans have now publicly acknowledged the Pakistan army-ISI linkages and their duplicity in pretending to cooperate with the US in hunting down jihadists fighting Americans in Afghanistan while nourishing them in Pakistan.

How else can the Americans explain Pakistan as its ally in their global war against terror, the central objective in that war being personified by Osama bin Laden? Osama had found refuge in Abbottabad for the last six years and to believe that the Pakistani army and the ISI were innocent would require more suspension of disbelief.

The US launched the Abbottabad raid without taking Pakistan into confidence. No prizes for guessing that secrecy was necessary because the US did not trust Pakistan, fearing Osama would get help and escape. Pakistan’s anger that its ‘sovereignty’ is being eroded is feigned and mixed with guilt at being discovered.

Indeed, it had already mortgaged its ‘sovereignty’ by accepting American drone attacks on its tribal areas. Ritual noises were made to protest the killing of innocent civilians, which is unavoidable in such attacks.

But the last vestiges of ‘sovereignty’ in Pakistan disappeared after US secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, visited Islamabad recently.

Pakistan accepted humiliating conditions, including agreeing to ‘joint strikes’ on high-value targets like Ayman al-Zawahari, Sirajuddin Haqqani, and Mullah Omar; besides consenting to the presence of special forces, CIA operatives, and US contractors (read soldiers of fortune) in Pakistan. The American delegation used the carrot and stick of financial aid and military assistance to cajole and threaten Pakistan to compromise its ‘sovereignty’.

The militants’ raid on the Mehran naval base was clearly executed with insider information and support, pointing to religious fundamentalists having infiltrated the Pakistani navy. This highlights the growing instability in Pakistan. Predictions are rife that Pakistan is either a ‘failing’ or ‘failed’ State. The Pakistani army has been the Praetorian Guard guiding the civilian government in Islamabad and maintaining the stability. But if the armed forces have been infiltrated, what will happen to the stability of the country. Arguments are being heard now that it will either implode or explode.

These developments have serious implications for India. Obviously, dialogue with Pakistan must continue, in which the Indian prime minister has developed a personal stake, although he stands isolated (as claimed in WikiLeaks, quoting former NSA MK Narayanan).

Pragmatists may wish continued military pressure on Pakistan, continuing development assistance to Afghanistan, intelligence sharing with the US on militant activity in Pakistan, and so on.

The worst possible policy would be predictability in dealing with Pakistan by holding a dialogue. All this requires clear thinking. Unfortunately, the capital is only concerned with its survival, focusing on the 2G and CWG issues and the public backlash spearheaded by Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev. The government resembles a deer caught in the headlights — confused and immobile.

 The writer is a research professor at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi