West Bengal Elections 2016 Phase 3: Cong-Left alliance likely to dominate, rural vote bank may redeem TMC

Phase 3 of the West Bengal Elections will be held on Thursday, April 21. What initially appeared to be a dull contest, with the TMC virtually assured of sweeping victory, has turned into an intriguing battle thanks to several factors. The Congress and the Left burying their hatchet to come together has certainly boosted their chances. This, alongside several self-goals by the TMC, the active intervention by Election Commission and the unfortunate flyover incidence, has suddenly put the parties on an even keel where every phase is critical, much like the end overs of a T20 match. 

On Thursday, 62 constituencies are going to poll across central and south Bengal, including seven seats in Kolkata. It will be a big challenge for TMC to hold on to its rural base. Whether the Left has regained ground in its traditional base of Burdwan will be tested. With the possibility of a virtual rout in Murshidabad looming before them, Trinamool's organisational weakness may prove costly to them in the district.

What happened in previous elections

In 2011, TMC won 28 of the 62 seats which are going to the polls on Thursday. While it drew a blank in Murshidabad, it won 13 out of 17 seats in Nadia, won all seven seats in Kolkata and won eight out of the 16 seats in Burdwan. The Left won seven out of 22 seats in Murshidabad and fared reasonably well, winning seven seats in Burdwan. Congress did well in its stronghold of Murshidabad under Adhir Chowdhury, claiming 15 of the available 22 seats. TMC and Congress were allies at the time. 

Cut to 2014 where all the parties fought separately. Congress was ahead in 15 and the Left in six seats with the TMC winning only one in Murshidabad. In Nadia, TMC virtually dominated  and was ahead in 14 out of 17 seats. Left was won only two and the BJP did commendably well in the Krishnanagar North assembly segment. In Kolkata, TMC candidates were ahead in five out of the seven seats, with Congress and BJP ahead in one each. The Left fared very poorly in Kolkata in the Lok Sabha elections. TMC increased its clout most significantly in Burdwan district where its candidates were ahead in 15 out of the 16 seats, and the Left won a solitary seat. 

Amisha Patel campaigning for Congress in Nadia. Source: PTI

The TMC won in 35 out of the 62 seats, up by seven from last time, even when they contested alone. The main opposition, the Left, was ahead only in nine seats, a huge drop from 2011.

This is how many seats each party won  in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls-

Murshidabad 

Party	TMC	Congress	Left	BJP
Seat	1	15	6	0

Nadia 

Party	TMC	Congress	Left	BJP
Seat	14	0	2	1

Kolkata

Party	TMC	Congress	Left	BJP
Seat	5	1	0	1

Burdwan

Party	TMC	Congress	Left	BJP
Seat	15	0	1	0

But in two years, the ground reality has changed a bit and, more importantly, the Left has allied with the Congress. This has made them a virtually impenetrable force in Murshidabad.  

Let's look at the equation if there had been a Congress-Left alliance in 2014 -

Murshidabad 

Party	TMC	Congress-Left	BJP
Seat	0	22	2

Nadia

Kolkata

Party	TMC	Congress-Left	BJP
Seat	4	2	1

Burdwan

The revised calculation shows TMC now winning only in 26 seats and the alliance taking 35 seats. Assuming total transference of votes between Congress and the Left, the alliance results in TMC dropping 9 seats. The ruling party has only lost power in the last two years. Hence, it will be a tough task for Mamata Banerjee's party to dominate this phase. 

How the parties stack up

Trinamool Congress

The Narada sting has brought the TMC  under a spotlight where its many warts, which were hidden beyond a glossy exterior, have been revealed. The party is currently struggling to get its version of the Narada fiasco straight. While Mamata has opened a door for putting the onus on the accused leaders if necessary, Mukul Roy has tacitly admitted to taking money, saying no one in the party took money for their personal use. In this situation, the one thing still going in favour of TMC is its solid support base in rural Bengal.

Mamata Banerjee in Chowrangee. Source: PTI

It will look to sweep Nadia and Burdwan to offset its inevitable loss in Murshidabad. The party will hope to sneak in a couple of seats if the BJP performs strongly in Murshidabad based on some local level polarisation.

In Kolkata, the north and central part is going to vote. TMC is assured of winning sets like Chowrangee and Entally, but repeating its total sweep as last time is improbable, if not impossible. The backlash of the flyover incident may also hurt the party's fortunes in Kolkata, especially in seats like Beleghata and Maniktala where an extremely keen contest is expected. 

Cong- Left alliance

For the last few decades, Murshidabad has been the hotbed for clashes between the Left and the Congress. This time, they are on the same side to protest against the 'atrocities' of the ruling TMC. But that is for the leaders. Will the voters be convinced and repose faith in a party they oppose ideologically? That's the big question for the alliance in Murshidabad and in Nadia too, to an extent. If the transference of vote is smooth, the alliance can sweep Murshidabad and can give a stern test to the ruling regime in Nadia and Kolkata. 

In Burdwan, the Congress doesn't have much of a presence. So it will be left for the CPI(M) and its allies to fight against TMC's strength. There has been some indication that the Left has got back some of its lost influence in Burdwan. But will it be enough? 

BJP

The party will be hoping to win at least couple of seats in this phase. It has a strong chance of winning in Jorasanko in Kolkata and has more than a fighting chance in Shyampukur in Kolkata, Krishnagar North and few other seats in Nadia. The party will look to improve its vote share in Murshidabad, though winning may be beyond their reach. In Burdwan, it has very little organisation to write home about.

BJP workers in Murshidabad.

The first two phases of the election have been relatively peaceful, with the EC and the CRPF keeping miscreants from all sides under check. The opposition, which usually squabbles about elections, were happy with the voting process. But this phase will be a big test for the EC again as TMC enjoys unquestionable dominance in some of the constituencies going to polls. 

Overall, this is another phase likely to be dominated by the alliance. TMC will try to cut its losses so that in the next phases, which are in the heartland of Bengal, it can edge ahead of the opposition. It will be another round of polling, where the opposition is likely to reap the advantage of being unified. May the best candidates win!